323
FXUS64 KLCH 102346
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A MODEST SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO DECREASE
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
-FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE USUAL HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
-THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS
SHOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES WHILE INCREASING THE HEAT. POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS HELPING TO DEEPEN THE WEAKNESS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
HIGH MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS, THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR STREET FLOODING. ALSO, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ON FRIDAY, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THAT A MODEST SAL - SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND EXPAND
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WHERE THE APEX OF THE SAL WILL MOVE.
ON SATURDAY, THE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DISPERSE, BEING REPLACED WITH A MORE MOIST AIR MASS BROUGHT IN
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN POPS
AGAIN WITH THE TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
RUA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
FLAT RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY THAT
WILL KEEP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
DIURNALLY AND SEABREEZE DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION AND DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL IN TURN INCREASE THE HEAT WITH HIGHER AIR
TEMPERATURES, TO GO ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEP HIGH
HUMIDITY IN PLACE. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HEAT RISK
WITH MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110F DEGREES AND THUS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.
RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
THE MAJORITY OF STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH JUST A
COUPLE REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF BPT. EXPECT THESE TO WANE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS. SOME LIGHT, PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND FROM
EARLIER RAINS, BUT THIS ISN'T EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FROM LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WON'T BE AS
HIGH AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CONVECTION IS MOST
LIKELY TO IMPACT LFT AND ARA. STORMS WILL AGAIN WANE BY AROUND
SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING. AWAY FROM STORMS, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF DURING THE PERIOD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS. THERE WILL
BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 94 72 94 / 10 50 0 50
LCH 77 92 77 91 / 20 40 10 70
LFT 75 90 75 91 / 10 70 10 70
BPT 75 92 76 90 / 20 30 20 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...66
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