042
FXUS64 KLCH 110540
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
-A MODEST SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO DECREASE
CONVECTION SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
-FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD DURING THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE USUAL HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
-THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS
SHOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES WHILE INCREASING THE HEAT. POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
ANOTHER WARM, HUMID, BUT LARGELY BENIGN NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW MORNINGS, SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
ACROSS AREAS THAT SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THURSDAY.
THE QUASISTATIONARY UPPER TROF THAT HAD BEEN HANGING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS
FILLED IN AND ALSO LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH LEAVING A VERY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION FRIDAY TO
PURELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY. AIDING IN CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION
WILL BE A SAHARAN DUST LAYER THAT WILL ADVECT UP THE TEXAS GULF
COAST AND EVENTUALLY INTO LOUISIANA LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SE TX WITH HIGHER POPS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LESS CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AND APPARENT
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY ALTHOUGH WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE SAHARAN DUST
ADVECTS EAST.
BY SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE POPS DOWN. NBM
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS VERY WELL AS IT MAINTAINS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO PARED THIS BACK
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
JONES
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
KEEPING DAILY POPS BELOW NORMAL AND DRIVING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. A COUPLE OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN WHAT MIGHT BE THE HOTTEST
WEEK OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA EACH AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ACTUALLY REACHED, HEAT PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN FOR ANY PROLONGED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
JONES
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT, PATCHY
GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING, BUT THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. AWAY FROM STORMS,
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT. DAILY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 94 71 94 73 / 50 10 40 0
LCH 91 77 91 77 / 40 10 50 20
LFT 91 75 91 76 / 60 10 40 10
BPT 91 76 89 76 / 40 10 50 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66
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