136
FXUS64 KLCH 251141
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
TO SATURDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- IMPACTFUL RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING HAS A LOWER CHANCE,
BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE, INTO DEEP SE TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
- ANOTHER HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS RAPIDLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING THIS (THURSDAY) EVENING HAS
FINALLY COME TO AN END WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING NEAR THE REGION. STORMS THIS EVENING HAVE DONE THEIR PART
IN SETTING THE STAGE FOR FLOODING RISK IN THE COMING DAYS. RAINFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN 0.25 AND 3.00 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT'S IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE VERY
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF STORMS TODAY.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS MEANDERING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
GULF TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOOM OVER
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE ANOTHER MCV TYPE FEATURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INLAND DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR MOST-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM WAVES/CLUSTERS, SO
WHEREVER THAT FEATURE DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS, EXPECT
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
STORMS COULD VERY QUICKLY DROP 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL, SO IF
STORM MOTION IS NOT VERY QUICK, UNLIKE TODAY, AREAS OF FLOODING
WILL BE A LARGE CONCERN.
AS THIS FEATURE WILL BE COMING FROM COASTAL AREAS, EXPECT HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HOWEVER, THOSE NORTH OF
I-10 COULD ABSOLUTELY SEE IMPACTFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY.
THE WAVE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INLAND IN NORTHEAST TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD, HIGH POPS ARE LIKELY
JUST DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND LAX UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE, AN ORGANIZED AREA LIKE AN MCV IS NOT EXPECTED. STORMS WILL
CARRY THE SAME HEAVY DOWNPOUR, LIGHTNING AND WIND RISK SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST US AS THE
TROF MOVES INTO THE DALLAS METROPLEX REGION ON SUNDAY. SINCE THERE
IS STILL SOME WEAKNESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DAY OF POPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN TO THE MID 90S SUNDAY WITH DEPARTING CLOUD COVER.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS IN A BIG WAY TO START THE LONGTERM PERIOD. A
VERY DEFINED WARMING TREND STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY AND UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE DOESN'T APPEAR TO LOCK INTO PLACE, THOUGH, AND BY
WEDNESDAY, THE PRIMARY RIDGE APPEARS TO SKIRT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS, A RETURN TO TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMER
DAYTIME POPS WILL DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST, MAYBE BY TUESDAY BUT
DEFINITELY BY WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
PERHAPS DUE TO THE LOCALIZED CONVECTION, SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A
LOWERING OF PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS "PSEUDO-FEATURE"
DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAKE ON ANY TROPICAL WAVE FEATURES AND SHOULD
ONLY BE A DISTURBED AREA OF CONVECTION UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING HEAT WAVE TO START THE WEEK WILL LIKELY
BRING ON ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ADVISORIES. MOISTURE FROM THE
CURRENT WAVE'S RAINFALL COULD ADD TO AREA HUMIDITY MAKING FOR A
RAPID-ONSET VERY DANGEROUS HEAT SCENARIO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE INCREASE IN POPS HELPS TO KEEP TEMPS IN
CHECK SOMEWHAT.
SO, IN THE LONGTERM PERIOD, THERE'S A FEW ITEMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
BUT NOTHING TO CAUSE GRIEF JUST YET.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED RIGHT OFF THE
COASTLINE. WE WILL SEE INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE WAVE.
TERMINALS DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY COULD SEE PERIODS OF
REDUCED VIS FROM HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE A BIT IN THE LATE EVENING TO
OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
EXPECT A RENEWED ROUND OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS FEATURE MOVING NEARBY
WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS FROM EAST TO
WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH AN ONSHORE FETCH AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS THE WAVE BEGINS MOVING
INLAND. ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT RELAXED.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK BRINGING MOST RAIN
CHANCES TO A CLOSE AND ALLOWING THE CALM CONDITIONS TO SETTLE IN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VERY HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS MOVED INLAND WHICH WILL HELP TO FEED
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. NEAR OR WITHIN STORMS EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAINFALL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS. OUTSIDE OF STORM CELLS,
MILDLY BREEZY WINDS AND WARM HUMIDITY CAN BE EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 92 74 92 74 / 80 30 70 10
LCH 89 76 90 77 / 90 60 80 10
LFT 88 76 89 77 / 90 40 80 10
BPT 88 76 89 77 / 80 70 80 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...87
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