863  
FXUS64 KLCH 251721  
AFDLCH  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL,  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON  
TO SATURDAY.  
 
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY  
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10  
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
- ANOTHER HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS RAPIDLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
OUR MAIN FEATURE REMAINS AN UNORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN  
THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR AREA  
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES  
WILL BE HIGH WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND CAN QUICKLY DROP SEVERAL  
INCHES OF RAIN IN SHORT TIME FRAMES. BUILT-UP AREAS WITH POOR  
DRAINAGE WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING, AND WE  
HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND  
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE,  
WITH RAP FORECAST CAPE VALUES EXPECTED BETWEEN 2000 - 3000 J/KG  
TODAY AND 1500 - 2000 J/KG ON SATURDAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND  
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,  
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10  
CORRIDOR COULD STILL SEE IMPACTS.  
 
BY SUNDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS, AND  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD AGAIN OVER THE REGION. BEFORE  
THE RIDGE IS ABLE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION, THE FORECAST WILL  
SUPPORT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME POPUP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
WE WILL START THE WORKWEEK HOT AND HUMID AS YET ANOTHER HEAT WAVE  
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLED  
INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PUSHING WARM, MOIST TROPICAL AIR NORTH AND  
DRIVING OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALOFT, A STRONG  
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE  
ABOVE 597 DM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES PUT  
THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING 579 DM AT THE 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 100%  
ON MONDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE TABLES HIGHLIGHTING THE STRENGTH OF THIS  
RIDGE WITH HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO OUR  
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT EVEN IN THE HEART OF  
SUMMER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HOT. TEMPERATURES ON  
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR  
THE 108 THRESHOLD. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL  
INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND HEAT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE  
EXPECTED. FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND TEXAS, WE CAN’T RULE OUT  
TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS WITH THE NBM PROBABILITIES NEAR 50%. THE GOOD  
NEWS IS THIS RIDGE WON’T BE STUCK OVERHEAD AND WILL BE SLIDING TO  
THE WEST, WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS  
BY MIDWEEK. STILL, THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS SITUATION AS THE HEAT  
WILL QUICKLY BUILD AND HEAT PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED FOR PEOPLE  
AND PETS NEXT WEEK.  
 
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM  
EAST TO WEST STARTING TUESDAY, BUT DECENT RAIN CHANCES REALLY  
ENTER THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,  
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES, BUT  
UNFORTUNATELY, HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX  
VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.  
 
LATER IN THE WEEK, MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FORMING A  
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE FROM  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS, AND IT WILL BE A FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING INLAND FROM  
THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED RIGHT OFF THE  
COASTLINE. WE WILL SEE INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE THIS  
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE WAVE.  
TERMINALS DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY COULD SEE PERIODS OF  
REDUCED VIS FROM HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE A BIT IN THE LATE EVENING TO  
OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY FOR  
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED  
WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR COASTAL  
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING EVEN HIGHER GUSTS, FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL PEAK TONIGHT  
AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. BACKGROUND  
MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH WINDS UP  
TO 25 KNOTS.  
 
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN GULF  
AND WILL HEAD INTO INLAND TEXAS. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE,  
WITH WAVES DROPPING BELOW 3 FEET AND WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10  
KNOTS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO CALM CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
HUMID AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH MINIMUM RH LEVELS  
BETWEEN 50% AND 60% THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH  
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
AEX 92 74 92 74 / 80 30 70 10  
LCH 89 76 90 77 / 90 60 80 10  
LFT 88 76 89 77 / 90 40 80 10  
BPT 88 76 89 77 / 80 70 80 10  
 
 
   
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
LA...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY  
FOR GMZ432-435-436-452-455-472-475.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...14  
LONG TERM....14  
AVIATION...87  
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