004
FXUS64 KLCH 252344
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
TO SATURDAY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- ANOTHER HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS RAPIDLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
OUR MAIN FEATURE REMAINS AN UNORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN
THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR AREA
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES
WILL BE HIGH WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND CAN QUICKLY DROP SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN IN SHORT TIME FRAMES. BUILT-UP AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING, AND WE
HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE,
WITH RAP FORECAST CAPE VALUES EXPECTED BETWEEN 2000 - 3000 J/KG
TODAY AND 1500 - 2000 J/KG ON SATURDAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR COULD STILL SEE IMPACTS.
BY SUNDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE IN CENTRAL TEXAS, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD AGAIN OVER THE REGION. BEFORE
THE RIDGE IS ABLE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION, THE FORECAST WILL
SUPPORT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME POPUP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
WE WILL START THE WORKWEEK HOT AND HUMID AS YET ANOTHER HEAT WAVE
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLED
INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PUSHING WARM, MOIST TROPICAL AIR NORTH AND
DRIVING OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALOFT, A STRONG
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 597 DM. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES PUT
THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING 579 DM AT THE 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 100%
ON MONDAY, WITH ENSEMBLE TABLES HIGHLIGHTING THE STRENGTH OF THIS
RIDGE WITH HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT EVEN IN THE HEART OF
SUMMER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HOT. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
THE 108 THRESHOLD. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, AND HEAT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND TEXAS, WE CAN’T RULE OUT
TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS WITH THE NBM PROBABILITIES NEAR 50%. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THIS RIDGE WON’T BE STUCK OVERHEAD AND WILL BE SLIDING TO
THE WEST, WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
BY MIDWEEK. STILL, THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS SITUATION AS THE HEAT
WILL QUICKLY BUILD AND HEAT PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED FOR PEOPLE
AND PETS NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
EAST TO WEST STARTING TUESDAY, BUT DECENT RAIN CHANCES REALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES, BUT
UNFORTUNATELY, HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
LATER IN THE WEEK, MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FORMING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND IT WILL BE A FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY COME TO A CLOSE. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING NEAR LOWER ACADIANA AND VICINITY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING DAYTIME HOURS,
ALTHOUGH TIMEFRAME IS STILL SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS. PREVAILING TS/TSRA
PERIODS SHOULD BE COMING WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER NAILED DOWN.
CLOUD DECKS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO NEARBY
TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECKS IN DAYTIME HOURS AND NEAR
TO THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND
COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS TROPICAL WAVE AND SFC LOW BEGIN PHASING
IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OVERNIGHT.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED
WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING EVEN HIGHER GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL PEAK TONIGHT
AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. BACKGROUND
MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH WINDS UP
TO 25 KNOTS.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN GULF
AND WILL HEAD INTO INLAND TEXAS. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE,
WITH WAVES DROPPING BELOW 3 FEET AND WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10
KNOTS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO CALM CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
HUMID AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH MINIMUM RH LEVELS
BETWEEN 50% AND 60% THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 74 92 73 96 / 20 60 0 30
LCH 77 89 77 92 / 60 70 10 60
LFT 76 89 76 92 / 40 70 10 60
BPT 76 89 77 92 / 60 70 10 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ432-435-436-
452-455-472-475.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...11
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