597
FXUS64 KLCH 260502
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS, POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY.
EXPECT HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
- ANOTHER HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS RAPIDLY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AT THIS HOUR. WEAKNESS
WILL REMAIN NEAR ENOUGH TO THE REGION TODAY TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO REBUILD ALOFT INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BRINGING A GRADUAL CLOSE OF DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL ALSO
BRING ABOUT CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING DAYTIME
HOURS. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 90S SUNDAY AND UPPER 90S MONDAY.
EVEN THOUGH DAYTIME DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE ON THE WAY DOWN TO START THE
WORK WEEK, REMNANT MOISTURE EVAPORATING FROM THE GROUND MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED HUMID/STEAMY CONDITIONS. THUS, MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE
105 TO 110F RANGE COULD BE POSSIBLE TO START THE WORK WEEK.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
RIDGING ALOFT STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON INTO THE MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT BROADENS OUT AND WEAKNESS OVER
THE REGION DEVELOPS. IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS, A RETURN TO
TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMER DAYTIME POPS WILL DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST,
MAYBE BY TUESDAY BUT DEFINITELY BY WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
PERHAPS DUE TO THE LOCALIZED CONVECTION, SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A
LOWERING OF PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO TAKE ON ANY TROPICAL WAVE FEATURES AND SHOULD ONLY BE A
DISTURBED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING NEAR THE REGION UNTIL HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER IN THE REGION AS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO
EAST TEXAS. WEAKNESS WILL LINGER ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST TODAY AS
THE WAVE DISSIPATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING THAT
WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. THIS WEAKNESS AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE STILL IN THE AREA WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNDOWN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND IS BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS OVER THE WATERS ARE SEEING SOME
LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT WITH THE TROF, THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7 AM TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
THEREAFTER AND WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAKNESS REMAINING NEAR THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
OVERNIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN INTO MONDAY DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES TO START THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS. ITS PROXIMITY TO THE REGION
COMBINED WITH LATENT TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD FEED ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY, BUT ARE LOWER AS THE FEATURE DISSIPATES.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, FURTHER
PAUSING RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING ABOUT HOT AND DRY, ALBEIT HUMID,
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 91 73 96 74 / 50 10 30 0
LCH 89 78 92 76 / 50 10 50 0
LFT 89 76 92 75 / 60 10 40 0
BPT 88 77 92 75 / 70 10 50 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ432-435-
436-452-455-472-475.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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