517
FXUS64 KLCH 262329
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS, POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER HEAT WAVE DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE EXTENDED AND LINGER INTO THE
COMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVED INLAND YESTERDAY EVENING. PWATS REMAIN
IN THE 2.25 TO 2.4 RANGE THROUGHOUT THE CWA. WHILE CONVECTION HAS
NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD, A GOOD SCATTERING OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN RATES IN
THE STRONGER SHOWERS HAVE BRIEFLY EXCEEDED 4" AT A FEW LOCATIONS
WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE IN PLACE, BUT STORM MOTION HAS BEEN
PROGRESSIVE MITIGATING THE FLOODING THREAT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER GA AND FL WITH A CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY AROUND THE RIDGE. ALOFT, A WEAKNESS IS OVER THE
AREA, HOWEVER AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE STATES. THE SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGES WILL SLIDE WEST TOMORROW INTO EARLY WEEK. THE SOUPY,
BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO HOTTER CONDITIONS AS THIS OCCURS. CLOUD COVER, AND THEREFORE RAIN
CHANCES, WILL DECREASE INTO TOMORROW AND MORE SO INTO MONDAY WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE RIDGE RETROGRADING TO BECOME DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BY MONDAY.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THE HEAT ADV
CRITERIA OF 108 AT MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY, EXCEPT POTENTIALLY AT A
FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS. HOWEVER TEMPS MAY PUSH UP TO THE CRITERIA OF
108 BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
TUESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE COMING HEAT WAVE
WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES TOUCHING 100 POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE TOASTY AS WELL, BUT
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH MAY
KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TUESDAY'S BROILER SETTING.
THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE STUCK IN A LOOP FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN A
ROW WITH MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN ON THE INCREASE LATE WEEK. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH HEADED WEST ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A WEAKNESS ALOFT MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION WITH PWATS INCREASING BACK INTO THE 2.25 TO 2.5" RANGE FROM
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS THEN CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION AT
KAEX FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
27/10-13Z.
ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND THIS
SHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT CONVECTION. STILL SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAY
MOVE ONSHORE AFTER SUNSET AND TRY TO REACH KBPT/KLCH AFTER 12Z.
AFTER 18Z, A FEW POP UP STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KBPT/KLCH AND
AFTER 20Z FOR KAEX. OTHERWISE, LEFT ANY MENTION FOR STORMS OUT OF
KARA/KLFT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN,
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
LOW DURING EARLY WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
TROPICAL DOWN POURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BUT
WITH LESS COVERAGE. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 74 96 74 98 / 10 20 0 0
LCH 77 92 76 95 / 10 50 0 10
LFT 76 92 75 95 / 10 40 0 10
BPT 77 92 76 95 / 10 50 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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