741
FXUS64 KLCH 270530
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING VERY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG WITH A SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY MID WEEK AND LINGER TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEFORE
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN, PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES WILL PROBABLY HANG
AROUND, ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A BRIEF HEAT WAVE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO AND STRENGTHENS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO CAP
THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING, TO HELP AIR TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
ON MONDAY WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F.
INTERESTING BY TUESDAY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
MAY BRING A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
EASTERLY WAVE, THAT WILL COMBINE TO HELP SOAR AIR TEMPERATURES, WITH
SOME SPOTS AT TRIPLE DIGITS FOR AIR TEMPERATURES, QUESTION WILL BE
HOW MUCH MIXING WILL TAKE PLACE TO KNOCK DOWN DEWPOINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO KEEP OVERLY OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS FROM FORMING. AT THE
MOMENT, MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURE TOOL SHOWS A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEEING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 108F
DEGREES WHICH WOULD MEAN AT LEAST A HEAT ADVISORY.
RUA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
BY MID WEEK, GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BREAKING DOWN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING AN EASTERLY WAVE
AND WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.
ON WEDNESDAY, PROJECTED PWAT VALUES REACH 2 INCHES WITH MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 70 PERCENT THAT WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
ON THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, A MORE TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS
WITH THE WAVE IS PROJECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2.25 INCHES AND MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER 80 PERCENT. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS THAT WILL
BRING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
AIR MASS HAS STABILIZED THIS EVENING WITH ALL EARLIER CONVECTION
DISSIPATED AND FAIR CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD STAY FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME PATCHY
FOG THAT MAY BRING ABOUT MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO OCCUR WITH BE KAEX BETWEEN 27/10-13Z.
ON SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 27/12Z FOR
KBPT/KLCH AS ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF COASTAL WATERS TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. BY 27/18Z, DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA, AND WILL
MENTION VCTS AT KBPT/KLCH/KAEX. AT THIS TIME, WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF KLFT/KARA AS DRIER AIR FROM THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN. AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF LATER TODAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MAINLY LIGHT ON SHORE FLOW TO GO
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL HANG AROUND ON SUNDAY WITH MIN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 50 PERCENT TO GO ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MIN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 50
PERCENT AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 95 74 98 75 / 10 0 0 0
LCH 92 76 95 76 / 40 0 10 0
LFT 92 75 94 77 / 40 0 10 0
BPT 92 75 94 73 / 50 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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