473
FXUS64 KLCH 272327
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN EARLY THIS WEEK BRINGING
VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG WITH A SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY MID WEEK AND LINGER TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER MOST HAVE BEEN OVER SE TX WITH A FEW INTO
SOUTH LA WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AS SUNSET APPROACHES.
THE HIGHER PWATS OF AROUND 2" WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
AND TONIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1" TO 1.5" ON MONDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE STATE WILL RETROGRADE WEST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO RETROGRADE
INTO MONDAY AND MOVE ROUGHLY OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES MAY NUDGE UP A
DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO
FALL A DEGREE. MUCH LIKE THIS AFTERNOON A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY HIT THE HEAT ADV CRITERIA OF 108. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
THIS IS ACROSS CEN LA INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE DEWPOINTS
MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN POINTS WEST. WILL KICK ANY ADVISORY
DECISIONS TO A LATER SHIFT AS THE NBM HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT HOT.
TUESDAY LOOKS THE HOTTEST OF EARLY WEEK WHEN TEMPS MAY TOUCH THE
CENTURY MARK ACROSS CEN LA. APPARENT TEMPS MAY EVEN APPROACH THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA OF 113 AS DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY
INCREASE FROM MONDAY AND COMBINE WITH THE ALREADY STIFLING TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVERHEAD AS A WEAKNESS GETS TUCKED
AROUND THE BASE OF THE HIGH. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN HOT, HOWEVER
COOLING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. ANY
HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING CONVECTION.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER MOISTURE
STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
ANY TERMINALS.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT, FAIR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH JUST
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE,
WITH KAEX SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THIS
BETWEEN 28/10-13Z.
ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND THIS SHOULD
ELIMINATE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF LATER
TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
LOW SEAS. BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH MAINLY LIGHT ON
SHORE FLOW TO GO ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
A DRY AND HOT AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MIN
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 96 74 100 / 0 0 0 10
LCH 76 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 75 94 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 75 94 73 97 / 0 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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