330
FXUS64 KLCH 281110
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
610 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
- A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG WITH A SURGE IN DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 28/00Z AND LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE EAST. THIS IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND MOVE TO THE WEST AND PRETTY MUCH BE ON TOP OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLIDE TO THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, SHOULD PRETTY MUCH CAP THE ATMOSPHERE AND KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FORMING INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE LACK
OF CONVECTION, AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOR TODAY (MONDAY) EVEN WITH THE AIR TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 90S, PROGS SHOW ENOUGH MIXING OF THE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO
KEEP WIDESPREAD MAX AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105F DEGREES
AND JUST BELOW LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FOR TUESDAY, LOOKING AT LIKELY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD. WITH
AN EASTERLY WAVE NEARING, EXTRA SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR SHOULD
AID IN WARMING THE AIR TEMPERATURES FURTHER. ALTHOUGH, A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
AND WILL LIKELY HELP BRING AN OFFSHORE FLOW, THAT COULD KEEP THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK, ALLOWING FOR THE USUAL MIXING.
STILL, WITHOUT A SEABREEZE, A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE
THE 100 MARK. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON MIXING OF THE DEWPOINTS, MAX
APPARENT TEMPERATURE TOOL SHOWS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR ABOVE 108F DEGREES. THUS, A HEAT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY GOING TO BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETREATS SOME TO THE WEST INTO
TEXAS, A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE VALUES AS PWAT AGAIN REACHES 2 INCHES AND MEAN LAYER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 70 PERCENT THAT WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS WAVE
GETS HERE EARLIER ENOUGH IN THE DAY, THEN THIS WILL HELP REDUCE THE
HEAT, IF IT DELAYS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SOME OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY SEE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND ALSO, THE
STORMS MAY HAVE A BIT MORE ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
RUA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
TO START THE PERIOD, THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE
WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL ALLOW A WEAK TROUGH
AND SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE TO ENTER AND THEN HANG AROUND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH GOOD MOISTURE VALUES AND LITTLE INHIBITION, EXPECT A
DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SEEING THAT MORE TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS TO
BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND
MEAN LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE.
THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS THAT WILL BRING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. WPC IN THEIR LATEST OUTLOOKS, HAVE THE FORECAST AREA
OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES MAY HANG AROUND INTO THE WEEKEND, AND
THUS SUBSEQUENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS MAY BE OUTLINED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.
RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR CONDITIONS CALM AND CLEAR FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 5
KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF PROVIDING MAINLY LIGHT ON SHORE FLOW TO GO ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND HANG AROUND INTO
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS, AFTERNOON AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY. A SURGE OF MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 50 PERCENT AND ALSO
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 98 75 100 76 / 0 0 10 20
LCH 94 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 20
LFT 94 76 96 78 / 0 0 10 40
BPT 94 73 97 74 / 10 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14
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