813
FXUS64 KLCH 281744
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1244 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF TODAY AND TUESDAY
UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON
TUESDAY FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110F.
- FROM WEDNESDAY TO THE END OF THE WEEK, EXPECTED INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AS A LOW ARRIVES AND LINGERS WITHIN AN AIRMASS OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING UNDERNEATH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING DOWN INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S, AND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S, MAXIMUM APTTS ARE
LIMITED TO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S TODAY.
HOTTER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ABOUT MAXIMUM APTTS IN
THE 105 TO 110F RANGE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
THUS THIS AREA HAS BEEN PLACED IN A HEAT ADVISORY. REMAINING AREAS
WILL SEE HEAT INDICES 100 TO 106 TUESDAY, AND THUS WILL FALL
SHORT OF THE CRITERIA.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
OPENING THE DOOR FOR RETURNING RAIN CHANCES FOR MOSTLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK ON WEDNESDAY, LIMITING HIGHS TO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
11
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
THURSDAY AND BEYOND, HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. A
VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT MUCH DRIER, AIRMASS DIVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTH US TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
MOISTURE AND FALLING HEIGHTS WILL MOVE OVERTOP THE REGION BRINGING
ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
THURSDAY.
DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL, SURGING
MOISTURE AND STALLING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF, A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN PAINTED IN FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THRU FRIDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND
LOWLAND FLOODING OVER THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
11
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE WINDS TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. CIGS WILL RANGE IN THE 2500 TO 4000 FOOT RANGE
DURING DAYTIME HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. HIGH BEGINS BREAKING DOWN FROM EAST TO
WEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
TO RETURN FROM THE EAST. ELEVATED DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THEREAFTER.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER WITH
SHORT WAVE PERIODS, WATERS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
MAY BECOME RATHER CHOPPY LATER IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. HIGH BEGINS BREAKING DOWN FROM EAST TO
WEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
TO RETURN FROM THE EAST. ELEVATED DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 76 100 76 97 / 0 10 20 50
LCH 76 97 77 93 / 0 10 20 50
LFT 76 96 78 92 / 0 20 40 70
BPT 73 97 75 94 / 0 0 10 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ028-029-
031>033-044-045-055-142-143-152>154-242-243-252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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