293
FXUS64 KLCH 291112
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
UNDERNEATH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TODAY WHERE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE 105°F TO 110°F.
- FROM WEDNESDAY TO THE END OF THE WEEK, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES AND LINGERS WITHIN AN
AIRMASS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
PROMPTING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESTS OVER THE TN VALLEY WHILE
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL
RAISE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PORTION OF CENLA WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA CLIMBS WELL INTO THE MID
90'S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO RANGE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70'S
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO A HEAT ADVISORY BEING IN EFFECT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. THAT BEING SAID LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY STILL PROGGED TO RANGE MAXIMUM APTTS 100-
107°F WHICH DEMANDS CAUTION FOR PEOPLE AND ANIMALS SPENDING TIME
OUTSIDE- PARTICULARLY DURING THOSE THE PEAK HEATING HOURS IN THE MID
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ABOVE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST INCREASES CHANCES OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS / STORMS- POTENTIALLY MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
ANY WIDE SPREAD ACTIVITY SO POPS WERE LOWERED TO REFLECT THIS
ATTRIBUTE. AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE INTO THURSDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES OF STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THERMAL TROUGHING ALONG THE TEX / MEX BORDER WILL COMBINE WITH
LOWERED HEIGHTS OFFSHORE LEADING TO HIGHER CHANCES OF SCATTERED POPS
TO EXTEND FURTHER WEST INTO THE SETX BY FRIDAY. THROUGH THE WEEKEND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HEDGE DOWN A BIT TOWARD THE LOWER 90'S AS
TROUGHING ALONG THE NW GULF MOVES INLAND WHILE MEETING UP WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS / TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA. WHILE THE FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO MIGRATE BELOW THE ARKLATEX
REGION IT IS POSSIBLE SOME CONVERGING BOUNDARIES MAY SEND SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NOCTURNAL HOURS WITH FEW TO SCT CIRRUS. THERE IS A NOTABLE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 10KFT WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
VICINITY AT BEST TOWARD THE ACADIANA TERMINALS
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. IN THE AFTERNOON TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE FORMING IN EASTERN
LOUISIANA. COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY BUT INCLUDED PROB30 FOR LFT AND
ARA STARTING AT 19Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE. HIGH BEGINS BREAKING DOWN FROM EAST TO WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO
RETURN FROM THE EAST. ELEVATED DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THEREAFTER.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER WITH
SHORT WAVE PERIODS, WATERS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
MAY BECOME RATHER CHOPPY LATER IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FROM
EAST TO WEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN. MIN RH DURING THE AFTERNOONS HEREAFTER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND EXPECTED TO TREND 50-60%. AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN FROM THE EAST.
ELEVATED DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 100 76 97 75 / 10 20 40 30
LCH 97 77 94 77 / 10 30 40 30
LFT 96 77 92 77 / 20 40 50 30
BPT 97 76 95 76 / 0 10 30 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-044-045-055-142-143-152>154-242-243-
252>254.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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