653
FXUS64 KLCH 300403
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1103 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
UNDERNEATH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WHERE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE 105°F TO 111°F.
- FROM WEDNESDAY TO THE END OF THE WEEK, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED AS A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVES AND LINGERS WITHIN AN
AIRMASS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
PROMPTING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VERY HOT TEMPS AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS ARE STARTING TO HIT THE LOW TO MID
90S AND CURRENTLY, HIS ARE IN THE 103 TO 105F RANGE. EXPECT TEMPS
TO CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD HIS 105
TO 110 ARE STILL EXPECTED. ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENLA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SOMEWHAT BE IN CONTROL AGAIN WEDNESDAY BEFORE
IT BREAKS DOWN FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. EVEN STILL, IT LOOKS LIKE DAYTIME HI VALUES WILL BE
ABLE TO MAX IN THE 105 TO 109F RANGE IN CENLA, SO ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
BY THURSDAY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD
ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCEMORE. MAX HIS SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK BY
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN AND CLOUD COVER, SO A HEAT ADVISORY SHOULD
NOT BE NECESSARY.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
ON FRIDAY, WEAKNESS CONTINUES LINGERING OVERHEAD, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING "COOL" FRONT BOUNDARY. THIS VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER, AND
DRIER AIRMASS DIVES TOWARDS THE SOUTH US TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DUE TO WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL, SURGING
MOISTURE AND STALLING FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF, A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN PAINTED IN FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THRU FRIDAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED, HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN URBAN AND
LOWLAND FLOODING OVER THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND PERHAPS INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
LINGERING RAIN CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE IN THE LONGTERM
PERIOD AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS WASHING OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA.
11
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID
DAY. PERIODS OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY OCCUR IN AND AROUND
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT
AND NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING. A SEA BREEZE MAY TURN THE WINDS
ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. HIGH BEGINS BREAKING DOWN FROM EAST TO
WEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
TO RETURN FROM THE EAST. ELEVATED DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THEREAFTER.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER WITH
SHORT WAVE PERIODS, WATERS OUT TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
MAY BECOME RATHER CHOPPY LATER IN THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BENEATH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY, OPENING THE DOOR FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS RETURNING TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 77 98 74 96 / 10 50 30 40
LCH 78 95 78 94 / 20 50 40 40
LFT 78 93 77 93 / 40 70 40 60
BPT 76 95 76 94 / 10 30 30 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ028-029-
031>033-143.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05
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