458
FXUS64 KLCH 311125
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN AFFECT AREAWIDE FROM 10AM THROUGH 7PM
TODAY, WITH HEAT INDICES EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 107-111 RANGE
- STARTING TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAKNESS MOVES OVERHEAD AND BOUNDARY
STALLS IN THE REGION.
- DUE TO AIRMASS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, DAILY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BRING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALL
FORECAST AREAS TODAY THRU SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
AFTER A VERY ACTIVE EVENING OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS, RADAR
HAS QUIETED DOWN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS POST-SUNSET, DUE TO THE
LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER, LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS THANKS TO A
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/WEAKNESS. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY REMAINS OFFSHORE. TODAY,
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A WEAKNESS ALOFT, WITH
RIDGING TO BOTH THE EAST AND WEST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
OVERHEAD, WITH PWATS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THEREFORE, WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME SOMEWHAT
WIDESPREAD BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/PEAK HEATING HOURS. AS A RESULT,
WPC CONTINUES TO OUTLINE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, MAINLY DUE TO
THE CHANCE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EVEN THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY, I STILL THINK WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
TO WARM UP BEFORE CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER COME IN TO PLAY, WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
IN ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO PEAK IN THE 107-111 RANGE. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF OUR OBSERVATION SITES HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA YESTERDAY (EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE POSTED HEAT ADVISORY), THEREFORE I DECIDED TO PUT
UP A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES/PARISHES TODAY FROM 10AM
THROUGH 7PM, GIVEN THE SET UP IS RATHER SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
TOMORROW, THE WEAKNESS ALOFT LINGERS OVERHEAD FOR A BIT LONGER, WITH
THE TWO RIDGES TO OUR EAST/WEST EVENTUALLY OVERCOMING THE WEAKNESS
BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. STILL, WE WILL SEE ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES BOTH TOMORROW AND SATURDAY THANKS TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX TOMORROW BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR CENLA FOR A BIT ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE
ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS BEGINS TO WANE, THE FRONT
WILL "TAKE OVER" IN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION.
BOTH TOMORROW AND SATURDAY LOW END RAIN CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE LINGERING
OVERHEAD, SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE
AREAWIDE BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
MOVING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GIVING THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR CENLA A SLIGHT PUSH SOUTH TO THE COAST.
WHILE THIS WILL PRETTY MUCH NOT BE NOTICEABLE FOR MOST OF US,
THOSE OF US IN CENLA WILL LIKELY SEE A VERY SMALL SHOT OF DRY AIR
FILTER IN ON SUNDAY. BY THAT I MEAN DEWPOINTS MAY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WHICH ISN'T MUCH BUT IT'S SOMETHING WHEN COMPARED TO
MID/UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE, WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
MORNING LOWS BOTH SUN AND MON, IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA-WIDE.
AND WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE
IT'LL TAMPER DOWN RAIN CHANCES COMPLETELY, WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WEAK TROUGHING LINGERS ALOFT ACROSS THE MS
RIVER VALLEY, GRADUALLY WEAKENING EACH DAY, WHILE RIDGING ALOFT
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/EASTERN TX. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN BECOMES STALLED NEAR THE
COASTLINE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR A DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE TX TO A MINIMUM EACH DAY (GENERALLY
AROUND 20-30%), WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH LA WHERE THE
STALLED BOUNDARY/UPPER TROUGH/SEABREEZE SHOULD WORK IN TANDEM TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY EACH DAY. TEMPERATURE WISE,
HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S EACH DAY WHILE
LOWS FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
MAIN IMPACT TO TERMINALS WILL BE SPORADIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TAFS WILL CARRY VICINITY TS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS. NEAR THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR/LIFR WITH STRONG
VARIABLE GUSTS, LOW VIS, AND LOW CIGS. AFTER SUNSET SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE
COMING DAYS BENEATH A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A STALLED BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
LOW, OUTSIDE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2025
A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECT TO LINGER OVERHEAD TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MINRH VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 70S. IN
ADDITION, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
STALL, BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO CENLA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 98 74 96 73 / 50 30 50 30
LCH 96 76 96 76 / 50 30 60 50
LFT 94 77 94 76 / 60 30 70 40
BPT 96 76 96 75 / 30 20 50 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-
252>254.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...14
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