494
FXUS64 KLCH 171719
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
- AWAY FROM RAINFALL AND CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING 103 TO 107F.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN OUR FORECAST
FOR BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING FEW CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST.
DAY TO DAY, WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID-90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. EACH AFTERNOON, WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN (50%) WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE, WHILE
FARTHER INLAND, CHANCES WILL DROP TO BELOW 20%. STILL, CAMS DO
INDICATE A ROBUST ENVIRONMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PWATS ABOVE 2
INCHES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
HEAT WILL BE A CONCERN EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN IF WE DON’T REACH
THE 108 F THRESHOLD FOR A HEAT ADVISORY, IT IS STILL IMPORTANT TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY. STAY HYDRATED, TAKE BREAKS FROM THE HEAT,
AND KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT SICKNESS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
THE HIGH PRESSURE WON’T STAY CENTERED OVERHEAD AS IT WILL START
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE CENTER SETTLED OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, BUT ONLY TO THE LOW 90S, NOT
A REAL BREAK FROM THE HEAT. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, PWAT VALUES
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
SIMILAR TO THE SHORT- TERM FORECAST, SOME STORMS WILL BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WEDNESDAY
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AS A WEAK TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION. A SIMILAR SETUP COULD BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OR
IMPACTS FROM THAT DISTURBANCE.
HEAT WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONSISTENT CONCERN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 107 EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS SETTLED OVERHEAD AND WILL CAUSE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. DURING THE AFTERNOON POPUP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NEAR STORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
BACKGROUND WINDS WILL STAY BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND COME FROM THE NORTH. WAVES WILL STAY BETWEEN 1 AND 3
FEET THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A FEW
STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. EVEN WITH THE MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT, MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN NEAR 50% IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE INTERIOR OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 97 74 96 74 / 30 10 30 10
LCH 96 76 96 76 / 20 20 50 30
LFT 95 76 94 75 / 30 10 50 10
BPT 96 76 95 75 / 20 20 50 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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