891
FXUS64 KLCH 180530
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1230 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION WILL BRING ABOUT
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- TROPICAL AIRMASS IN THE REGION WILL CAUSE ANY STORMS TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA TODAY.
- AWAY FROM RAINFALL AND CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING 103 TO 107F.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
VERY HOT CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL WERE FELT TODAY.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS WAVERING ON COVERAGE TODAY, AND CONSIDERING
THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY, IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, WITH THE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD, ANY CELLS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THOSE RAIN CHANCES WILL SOMEWHAT INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
ERIN MOVES NEAR THE MAINLAND US, CAUSING HIGH PRESSURE TO
RETROGRADE. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES, ONCE AGAIN, WITHIN THE TROPICALLY MOIST AIRMASS SETTLED
IN THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY THIS
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND
DAYTIME MOISTURE, AFTERNOON HIS COULD TOP OUT IN THE 105 TO 107F
RANGE LIKE SEEN ON SUNDAY. BECAUSE MIXING SHOULD TAKE OVER,
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY. IF ONE BECOMES
NECESSARY, IT WILL BE ISSUED.
INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE
HEAT RISK EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
THOSE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO THE START OF THE
LONGTERM FROM RETROGRADED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
LATER WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN US, BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO LOCK BACK
IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND
THIS HIGH SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
DON'T GET TOO HUNG UP ON THIS IDEA. SFC MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS
CERTAINLY DRIVES INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO GENERATE TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON
CONVECTION.
11
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL AREAS DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. PERIODS OF ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE REGIME OF VARIABLE PRESSURE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS AROUND THE
REGION. EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BRINGING ABOUT DAILY MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
40 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 98 72 96 73 / 30 30 30 10
LCH 97 75 95 76 / 50 40 50 20
LFT 95 75 93 75 / 50 30 40 10
BPT 96 74 93 76 / 40 20 50 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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