223
FXUS64 KLCH 181755
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1255 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION WILL BRING ABOUT
PERIODS OF ON AND OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- TROPICAL AIRMASS IN THE REGION WILL CAUSE ANY STORMS TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA TODAY.
- AWAY FROM RAINFALL AND CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING 103 TO 107F.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
DISSIPATION AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS OFFSHORE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSHOWERS TO DEVELOP WHILE CHANCES FAVOR OFFSHORE AND ALONG
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE ROUGHLY 3-5°F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
TRENDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90'S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WHERE DIURNAL MARINE LAYER INTRUDES LESS
INFLUENCE, WILL LIKELY SEE HEAT INDICES PUSH TOWARD ADVISORY
CRITERIA TOMORROW FACTORING IN THE HUMIDITY. REGARDLESS, THESE
CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT CAUTION TO BE TAKEN DURING OUTDOOR PHYSICAL
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT LATE MORNINGS TO EARLY EVENINGS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
BY THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DRY / WARM AIRMASS MEETING THE
SUBTROPICAL HUMID AIRMASS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL LEAD TO
GREATER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN GREATER SPREAD AND FREQUENCY.
THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION AND STALL ALONG THE COAST
PROVIDING AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MIX AS THIS FEATURES WAINS ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
VICINITIES OF MOST TAF SITES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE MOST
OF THE 6 HR TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR CEILINGS, PERIODIC WX AND
VIS DETERIORATION IS LIKELY WITHIN PULSE SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSHOWERS WITH PRIMARY MOTION OUT OF THE NE. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE
PERIOD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE REGION. PERIODS OF
ON AND OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE REGIME OF
VARIABLE PRESSURE WITH GREATER COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS AROUND THE
REGION. EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BRINGING ABOUT DAILY MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
45 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 97 73 97 / 30 20 10 40
LCH 74 94 77 95 / 40 50 20 50
LFT 74 94 75 94 / 50 50 10 40
BPT 74 93 76 95 / 40 60 20 50
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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