391
FXUS64 KLCH 191147
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ABOUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND LINGER
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
EXPECTED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
CONVECTION FOR TODAY HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED LEAVING BEHIND A
WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT. LIKELY ANY NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY THAT FORMS
TONIGHT WILL BE WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE OFFSHORE AND ACTIVITY
WILL STAY OFFSHORE.
FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE,
DECENT GULF MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE RIDGE WITH PWAT IN
THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. WITH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST AND SOME RIDGING
ALOFT, EXPECT ANY SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN START LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. THAT MAY ALLOW
STORMS TO BECOME A LITTLE ROBUST WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN.
LOOKING AT THE HEAT RISK, AIR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS WILL
RANGE FROM 103F TO 107F AND THUS WILL NOT HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY
OUT.
ON THURSDAY, ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND THE OUTER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM ERIN OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WILL PUSH A TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO POOL AHEAD AND ALONG THE
TROUGH WITH PWAT AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
THEREFORE, EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY AND WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, SOME TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION, HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE KEPT IN CHECK.
RUA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME REFLECTION OF IT AT THE SURFACE. GOOD
MOISTURE WILL BE HANGING AROUND WITH PWAT OVER 2 INCHES SO
EXPECTED A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION, HEAT RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BE KEPT IN CHECK.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAIN
WEST WITH STRENGTHEN WITH A GENERAL LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. WAKE OF ERIN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL
BRING IN DRIER AIR. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS.
RUA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
HIGH CLOUDS FORMED BY A DECAYING CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST
INTO TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
LARGELY DISSIPATING BEFORE 05Z. A TROPICAL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
VISIBILITY REDUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. AWAY FROM STORMS, NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT UNDER FIVE KNOTS.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ALONG WITH LOW SEAS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD THEN
AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY TIME OF DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 50
PERCENT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 96 74 97 73 / 20 10 50 40
LCH 94 76 95 75 / 30 20 60 40
LFT 94 76 95 75 / 30 20 40 30
BPT 93 76 95 74 / 40 20 60 50
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...66
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