779
FXUS64 KLCH 191759
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ABOUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND LINGER
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
EXPECTED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A BROAD REGIME OF FAIRLY SLACK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. IN THE
MEANWHILE, WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 103-107°F UPON FACTORING THE HUMIDITY
UNDER LIGHT WINDS. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES
OF STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN TRANSITION.
BY THURSDAY MORNING MORE APPRECIABLE AND WIDESPREAD POPS ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THE PARENT TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE JET
STRADDLED ACROSS CANADA SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, A PORTION OF THIS TROUGH REMAINS UNPHASED AND CONTINUES TO
SINK SOUTHWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A REGION OF DRY,
CONTINENTAL AIR TO ABUT MOIST MARINE AIR ALONG THE GULF COAST.
TOGETHER, WITH SIGNS OF PREFRONTAL TROUGHING IN THE LOW - MID
LEVELS, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA CARRIES A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. NATURALLY,
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND A LITTLE COOLER- TO THE UPPER 80'S AND
LOW 90'S.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SLOW STEADY CLIMB BACK TO MID TO UPPER 90'S
TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK. AREAS OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARE STILL LIKELY FRIDAY ACROSS SETX AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LA. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND STALL WHILE DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM
THE NORTH. WITH THE DETERIORATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST
REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND NOTEWORTHY POPS DO CARRY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON
FAVORING BEST CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WHICH SHOULD HAVE MORE SUBSIDENCE INFLUENCE. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET TO ARRIVE FOLLOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OVER THE TN VALLEY GIVEN A MORE UNSETTLED,
BUT WARM PATTERN INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL KEEP PREVAILING OVER ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME DESTABLILIZATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH
CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THAT SAID,
CHANCES FOR PRECIP STILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED CHANCES TO CONTINUE UNTIL DUSK, HOWEVER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ALONG WITH LOW SEAS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE
NORTH ON THURSDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY TIME OF DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 DEGREES AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 50
PERCENT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 73 96 73 92 / 10 40 40 70
LCH 77 95 75 92 / 10 50 50 80
LFT 76 96 75 92 / 10 40 30 80
BPT 76 95 74 92 / 10 50 50 80
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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