051
FXUS64 KLCH 201815
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
115 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
ABOUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND LINGER
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
EXPECTED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
SURFACE PRESSURE CURRENTLY IS FAIRLY SLACK AS REGIONAL
ENVIRONMENT TRANSITIONS TO COASTAL TROUGHING BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE, AN INCREASE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT RANGE OF THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW
CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY BE A CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING
WINDS. EARLY ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATES FAIRLY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING NEAR 700MB SO
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AS TYPICAL PULSE-LIKE
THUNDERSHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL ALONG THE TX / LA
GULF COAST THURSDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN POPS AND COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA. WHILE SHEAR PROFILE MAY IMPROVE IN TERMS OF
SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE STORMS, STILL LOOKING AT MLCAPE AROUND 2000-
3000J/KG TO BE THE DOMINANT INGREDIENT ALONG WITH HEALTHY PWAT
NEARING 2.00"
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
SATURDAY, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MIX INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND CENLA KEEPING MORE APPRECIABLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG /
SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONALLY, LESS SKY COVER WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TOWARD THE MID-UPPER 90'S ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER THE BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE SHORT TERM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND, LOWER BUT ISOLATED CHANCES CONTINUE HERE ON OUT INTO
THE EARLY WORK WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH SEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES.
WORTH NOTING THERE IS A SECONDARY, MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO DESCEND
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. PRESENT GUIDANCE IS NOT AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING ANY
ENHANCED PRECIP TO THE REGION, HOWEVER, GIVEN THERE REMAINS AN
UNSETTLED ASPECT TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, WILL CAUTION
POP'S MAY TREND UPWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDING
HOW THIS BOUNDARY LAYS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERACTS WITH AMBIENT
MARINE MOISTURE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT INITIALLY
SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BEST.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WILL NOTE INCREASING CUMULUS AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON
RADAR. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE PERIODICALLY DETEIORATING CONDITIONS
OVER SOME SITES UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING DECREASES AROUND DUSK.
PROB30 TSRA GROUPS ARE IN THE CURRENT PERIOD TO REFLECT THAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ALONG WITH LOW SEAS. A TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST FROM
THE NORTH ON THURSDAY STALLING ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL HELP BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY TIME OF DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE TYPICAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING, AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ON TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 50 PERCENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DEMINISHING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 91 71 91 / 30 70 30 30
LCH 75 92 74 91 / 40 70 60 70
LFT 75 93 74 90 / 20 70 40 70
BPT 74 92 74 90 / 50 70 70 70
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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