750
FXUS64 KLCH 210514
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1214 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LINGER INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
EXPECTED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE A TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO LIFT HURRICANE ERIN NORTH AND OUT TO SEA IN
THE ATLANTIC. THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY MODEST SYNOPTIC LIFT MAY PRODUCE STORMS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD
TO ISOLATED FLOODING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY. NUMEROUS DIURNAL STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY, HOWEVER A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION
BY SATURDAY. POPS WILL BE ELEVATED ALONG THE COAST AND DROP OFF
FARTHER INLAND SATUDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE REMAIN
POSSIBLE.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS MAY DRIVE A
REINFORCING FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WHILE ITS
STILL TOO EARLY, GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES MAY FALL SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND, BUT DON'T BREAK
OUT THE PUMPKIN SPICE OR GUMBO POTS YET, ITS STILL ONLY AUGUST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING, HOWEVER
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL OCCUR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL
OTHERWISE BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
A TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY
STALLING ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP BRING AN
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY TIME
OF DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, AND AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 91 72 91 69 / 60 30 40 10
LCH 92 74 90 74 / 70 50 70 40
LFT 93 74 89 74 / 70 40 70 30
BPT 93 74 90 74 / 70 50 70 50
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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