023
FXUS64 KLCH 211753
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1253 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LINGER INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
EXPECTED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM APPALACHIA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND STALL FOR COUPLE
DAYS BEFORE DIMINISHING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TAKING A DEEPER DIVE, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
TX/LA GULF COAST WHICH IS LEADING TO RELATIVELY HIGH OBSERVED PWATS
WITHIN THE 75TH-90TH PERCENTILE. THOUGH SFC-3KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW, AROUND 25KTS OR LESS, WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500J/KG WILL HELP DEVELOP SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY WITH APPRECIABLE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL TREND TOWARD THE UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S
UNDER THIS HUMID AIRMASS.
BY SATURDAY, THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM / COASTAL TROUGHING WILL
MEANDER FURTHER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, AS THIS FEATURE LINGERS, POPS DO
TREND A HIGHER GRADIENT OF CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HERE,
LAND / SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE ACTIVITY IN
THIS REGION COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH OVER CENLA WHERE CHANCES ARE
MUCH LOWER.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
TRENDING INTO THE LONG RANGE, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. DAY TIME HIGHS WILLS WARM FURTHER
INTO THE MID 90'S ONCE AGAIN. SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SOUTH AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY(CANADA) INTO NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS / STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AS THIS
BOUNDARY ALSO SLOWS TOWARD THE COAST, PRECIPITATION PATTERN BECOMES
A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WITH MODERATE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE
COAST. GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT FUZZY ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR INFILTRATES
TOWARD THE COAST. THOUGH, THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZES WILL HELP MIX DRY AND COOLER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH AND MAY
OFFER A BRIEF REPREIVE FROM THE HEAT.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
TAF PERIOD WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, AS
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES, ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED,
PARTICULARLY ALONG SOUTHEAST TX AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LA. THAT
SAID VCTS QUITE LIKELY ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH DUSK. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY VARIABLE OUTFLOWS. A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY
INITIATES DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS- THOUGH MORE ISOLATED.
30
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
A TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY
STALLING ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP BRING AN
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY TIME
OF DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, AND AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
TROUGHING REMAINS OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER 60 PERCENT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. WITH CONTINUED SHOWER
/ STORM ACTIVITY, MINIMUM RH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 50%
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 72 90 69 94 / 30 40 10 10
LCH 75 89 74 91 / 60 80 50 50
LFT 74 90 74 90 / 50 80 30 50
BPT 74 88 73 91 / 60 80 60 60
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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