103
FXUS64 KLCH 221119
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE AREA OR JUST OFFSHORE
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
- A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTS AS A
FOCUS AND INTERACTS WITH A SOUPY AIRMASS, CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE.
HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING. DIURNAL
HEATING TODAY WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO SPREAD BACK INLAND. STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW ONCE AGAIN, AND THIS ALONG WITH
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL PRODUCE A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THIS WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY OOZE SOUTH TO THE COAST
TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW STATES WHICH IS
PRODUCING A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY WHICH IS DRIVING THE WEAK
FRONT SOUTH. THE NORTH FLOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH IN A DRIER AIRMASS THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE TODAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
AREA WIDE, SATURDAY CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE FARTHER ON SUNDAY AS PWATS
FALL TO AROUND 1".
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK AND KEEP A
GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO NORMALS AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS LINGERS IN THE REGION.
BY MID WEEK A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA. WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO NORMALS, OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW, THE MAIN EFFECT MAY BE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER MORNING LOWS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
WILL BE STARTING AT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE, SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCE TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA SO WILL HAVE PROB GROUPS AFTER 22/20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION, VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL,
HOWEVER, IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
OCCUR IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 23/02Z.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
A TROUGH WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP
BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
ANY TIME OF DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING, AND AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAK FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH LESSENING RAIN
CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 91 70 93 69 / 50 10 10 0
LCH 89 74 92 73 / 80 50 60 20
LFT 89 74 91 73 / 80 30 50 20
BPT 89 74 91 73 / 80 60 60 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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