747
FXUS64 KLCH 221814
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
114 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE AREA OR JUST OFFSHORE
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
- A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY ENTER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CWA.
GIVEN GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE IN PLACE AND EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF
POPS, HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON.
PROGNOSIS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS THE FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BE SLOWLY WORKED THROUGH, OR STABILIZE AMID A
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THUS WHILE MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE, THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW AT LEAST OF MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, HOWEVER.
BY SATURDAY, THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM / COASTAL TROUGH WILL
MEANDER FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THIS FEATURE LINGERS, POPS DO TREND
A HIGHER GRADIENT OF CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR COMPARED
TO FURTHER NORTH OVER CENLA WHERE CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER AS DRY
AIR ATTEMPTS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. POPS CONTINUE
TO LOWER SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MIGRATES EAST ALLOWING THE
BOUNDARY TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL TREND FURTHER TOWARD
THE MID 90'S WITH LESS SKY COVERAGE.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
BY MONDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO THE MIDWEST. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL WARM FURTHER INTO THE MID
90'S ONCE AGAIN. SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FEATURE WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SOUTH IN THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY(CANADA)
INTO NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS / STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY ALSO SLOWS TOWARD THE COAST, STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK AGAINST THE MARINE BL TO MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AHEAD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY TUESDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY REFORMS AND HUGS THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A
FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. REGARDING TEMPERATURES HEREAFTER, GUIDANCE DOES
TREND DOWN HIGHS TOWARD THE UPPER 80'S AND LOWER 90'S. MEANWHILE,
EVENING LOWS WILL KEEP INTO THE UPPER 60'S IN CENLA AND LOWER 70'S
TOWARD THE COAST MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS FORMED EAST TO WEST OVER KLCH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT LCH AND WILL
SPREAD WEST, IMPACTING BPT AROUND 19Z. VCTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNSET AS A LINGERING BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CWA. LFT AND ARA SHOULD ALSO EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS STARTING
AROUND 03Z. AEX WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MAIN COMPLEX BUT SPORADIC
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PROB30 IS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TO COVER THOSE
CONCERNS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
A TROUGH WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH
WILL HELP BRING AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING ANY TIME OF DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE TYPICAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING, AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK FRONT IS DRIVEN OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST TODAY. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH LESSENING RAIN
CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 70 92 69 95 / 10 10 0 0
LCH 73 90 73 94 / 60 50 10 20
LFT 73 90 72 93 / 30 40 10 10
BPT 72 89 73 94 / 60 60 20 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14
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