775
FXUS64 KLCH 240535
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1235 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR THE
COAST, WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
- ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES FOR MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT, WHILE ALOFT A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. DRIER AIR HAS
BEGUN TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE OOZ LCH SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF
1.86"(NEAR THE DAILY MEAN), DOWN FROM 2.07" YESTERDAY. GRANTED, THIS
IS JUST A TAD DRIER BUT LUCKILY FOR US FURTHER DRY AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN US. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS FALLING TO NEAR THE 25TH BY THIS EVENING, WHILE
NBM SHOW MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 35-50% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE IT'S LOOKING LIKE IT'LL BE A DRY BUT WARM END TO THE
WEEKEND, WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES, LOWER HUMIDITY, AND HIGHS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 92-95 DEGREES. DRY AIR LINGERS THROUGHOUT MONDAY, WITH
PRETTY MUCH A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY'S FORECAST ON TAP. ONLY
DIFFERENCE WILL BE IT MAY JUST BE A TAD WARMER, BUT LOWER
DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES AND NEAR-ZERO RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO RETREAT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY, OPENING THE DOOR FOR WEAK RIDGING TO
TAKE ITS PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AT THE SAME TIME,
SURFACE WINDS BRIEFLY TURN A BIT MORE SERN BRINGING A BIT OF WARM
GULF AIR INLAND, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10. HOWEVER, JUST
AS QUICKLY AS MOISTURE RETURN GETS GOING IT WILL COME TO AN END, AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A MIXED BAG FORECAST, WITH LOW END RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH (PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10). IN ADDITION, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
TAP. DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY
FALLING INTO THE MID 60S FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVERHEAD REMAIN
RATHER STAGNANT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OFFSHORE AT THE
SURFACE, WHILE ALOFT WE REMAIN BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OVER TX/THE
GULF AND TROUGHING OVER THE E/SE CONUS. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH GENERALLY
20-30 POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 EACH DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR EAST/NORTHEAST WILL KEEP DRIER AIR ACROSS CENLA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S, WHILE ELSEWHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE RATHER AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS WILL RUN JUST BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN
THE GULF BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORTUNATELY, THIS DOES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR A BIT LONGER HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IT WILL
START TO FEEL RATHER STICKY OUTSIDE BY THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
THE MID/LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE
COASTAL WATERS, ALONG WITH A SECOND FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY, WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR MAINLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED AWAY
FROM CONVECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2025
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY, WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE MID 30S/LOW 40S INLAND TO MID 40S/LOW 50S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR FORECAST IS
ON TAP FOR MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
TUESDAY. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 60S THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TUES-THURS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 94 69 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 94 72 94 74 / 0 0 10 10
LFT 93 72 94 73 / 0 0 10 10
BPT 94 72 94 75 / 10 0 10 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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