426
FXUS64 KLCH 101745
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL NIGHT TIME LOWS TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AND THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND WINDS
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
- AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING WEST ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM, HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT
FORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AT
SUNSET LEAVING THE FIRST PERIOD SHOWER FREE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER TEXAS TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA REINFORCING
THE DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
THE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SUMMERTIME HOT VALUES WITH NIGHT
LOWS CLOSE TO THE CLIMO NORMS. MEANWHILE, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK BY MIXING AND LOWERING AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS.
RUA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR TO OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FORMING WITH NO
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, AND A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUMMERTIME HOT
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MILD AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WITH THE
DRY AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK
AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CU BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP CLOUDS FROM FORMING INTO ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND SUNSET, CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE LEAVING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL RIDGING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE, A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOWER PRESSURES WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MIDDLE GULF.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT TO
MODEST EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODEST SEAS. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OF THE FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
A MAINLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT
OF THE FORECAST. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE AROUND 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND BETWEEN 40 AND
45 PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 72 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 71 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 73 92 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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