706
FXUS64 KLCH 102354
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL NIGHT TIME LOWS TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AND THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND WINDS
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
- AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING WEST ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM, HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT
FORMS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AT
SUNSET LEAVING THE FIRST PERIOD SHOWER FREE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER TEXAS TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA REINFORCING
THE DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
THE AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SUMMERTIME HOT VALUES WITH NIGHT
LOWS CLOSE TO THE CLIMO NORMS. MEANWHILE, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE KEPT IN CHECK BY MIXING AND LOWERING AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS.
RUA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR TO OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FORMING WITH NO
APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES, AND A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS, AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUMMERTIME HOT
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MILD AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON MIXING WITH THE
DRY AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK
AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AIR TEMPERATURE.
RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN, A
COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL ABLE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND COASTAL AREAS. THESE
STORMS ARE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITHIN AN AIRMASS OF LOCALLY
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE, WHICH MEANS THEY'LL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FAIR WEATHER TYPE CLOUDS HAVE ALSO RETURNED IN EARNEST WITH THIS
POOLING OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THESE CLOUDS (HOVERING AROUND
4 KFT) WILL ALSO DISSIPATE WITH SUNDOWN.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ISSUES WITH FOG OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH, THE
NORMAL PROBLEM CHILD, AEX, MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY VIS TO 5SM IN THE
JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE SAME ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE
IN FORECAST PRODUCTS SHOULD RESULT IN 3 TO 5 KFT FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS FIELDS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION, BUT COASTAL
TERMINALS COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS.
WINDS WILL VARY OVER THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING
NEARBY AND IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEABREEZE ENTRAINMENT.
11/CALHOUN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 72 92 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 71 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 73 92 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11
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