473
FXUS64 KLCH 111133
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS OPPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
- HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAILY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY.
- LOWER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CAPPED
IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY. CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY FOR
THOSE OUTDOORS WORKING, AT SPORTING PRACTICES, OR OTHERWISE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
QUITE THE LENGTHY PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS IN STORE THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARILY SURFACE TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE REGION OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. FROM
TODAY INTO SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ONLY OFFER MORE OPPRESSION TO
ONGOING HIGH TEMPERATURES / HEAT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, DAILY DIURNAL
MIXING WILL CRANK DOWN DAYTIME MOISTURE EACH DAY. THE HEAT INDEX /
REAL-FEEL OF TEMPS OUTDOORS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY.
THAT BEING SAID, SINCE SWEAT AND MOISTURE WILL WICK AWAY QUICKLY,
DEHYDRATION CAN HAPPEN QUICKLY. CONTINUE TO USE HEAT MANAGEMENT
TECHNIQUES FOR THOSE WORKING OUTDOORS.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE DRY, OPPRESSIVE HEAT ONLY CONTINUES INTO THE LONGTERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN, BRINGING ABOUT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AS WELL.
UPPER TROF LOOKS TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON
SUNDAY, SHUNTING OFF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE DAY. THIS COULD
LIMIT UPPER SUBSIDENCE ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS TO BILLOW
BY DURING DAYTIME HOURS. A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS MAY HELP LIMIT TEMPS
VERY SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT'LL STILL FEEL LIKE
OPENING A PRE-HEATED OVEN WHEN WALKING OUTDOORS SUNDAY OR OTHERWISE.
UPPER PATTERN TRIES TO LIVEN UP FROM THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND,
SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCERN HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS MAY BE TO THE
LONGTERM FORECAST.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
PATCHY FOG WILL LIMIT VIS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE, AROUND 15Z. FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL KEEP WINDS AT THIS PITCH FOR THE COMING
DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 20 TO 60 NM WATERS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED CONDITIONS FROM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BETWEEN
THE GRADIENT FROM SURFACE HIGH AND REMNANT BOUNDARY. FROM FRIDAY
MORNING TO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY, THIS BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED.
AT THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK, ANOTHER GRADIENT MAY PICK UP AS
UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN GULF STATES AND SFC HIGH REMAINS
IN PLACE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN ELEVATED WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY, VARIABLE WINDS TO BE EXPECTED
TODAY THRU THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION STRENGTHENS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO
DRIVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. SURFACE MIXING IS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME RH MINIMUMS IN THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 94 69 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 93 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 92 72 94 71 / 10 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...14
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