832
FXUS64 KLCH 121201
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
701 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS OPPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
- EXPECT DAILY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE REGIME.
- LOWER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CAPPED
IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY. CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY FOR
THOSE OUTDOORS WORKING, AT SPORTING PRACTICES, OR OTHERWISE
BEING ACTIVE OUTDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
CONTINUING WITH THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST MESSAGING THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. SUNDAY, UPPER TROF SWEEPS INTO THE LOWER PLAINS STATES,
BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY, BUT SUBSIDENCE IS SET TO REMAIN IN
PLACE.
THUS, INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND
FRIDAY. DRY AIR CONTINUES ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION
OF THIS AIRMASS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL GIVE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
DAYTIME HEATING TO MAXIMIZE AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CAN BE
EXPECTED.
THE LAPSE IN UPPER HIGH ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW INCREASED CLOUD COVER
BUT NO RAINFALL. EVEN SO, HIGHS WILL PERSIST IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AREA WIDE. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW RESULTING IN DAYTIME MINIMUM RH
VALUES 30 TO 45 PERCENT AND KEEPING HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
THRU THE PERIOD.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THE DRY, OPPRESSIVE HEAT ONLY CONTINUES INTO THE LONGTERM PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN, BRINGING ABOUT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AS WELL.
MUCH OF THE SAME HOT RIDGE PATTERN IS SEEN INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS
NOW BEGINNING TO AGREE ON UPPER TROF MOVING INTO EASTERN SEABOARD
TUESDAY BEFORE A CUTOFF LOW FORMS AND RETROGRADES WEST TOWARDS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, IT LIKELY WON'T IMPACT
US MUCH HERE THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH AND AMBIENT DRY AIRMASS.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF PATCHY FOG, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF. PERIODS OF ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW AND SEAS WILL
DEVELOP OVER OUTER 20 TO 60 NM WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF WAVES.
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY, VARIABLE WINDS TO BE EXPECTED
TODAY THRU THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION STRENGTHENS FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING HIGH TEMPS TO
DRIVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY. SURFACE MIXING IS EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME RH MINIMUMS IN THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 95 70 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 94 73 93 74 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 94 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 94 72 93 72 / 0 0 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...87
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