557
FXUS64 KLCH 121801
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
101 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90'S TOMORROW THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS OPPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
- EXPECT DAILY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE REGIME.
- LOWER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CAPPED
IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY. CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY FOR
THOSE OUTDOORS WORKING, AT SPORTING PRACTICES, OR OTHERWISE
BEING ACTIVE OUTDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AND MINIMAL RAINFALL IS THE STORY FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. SFC TO LOW LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY RESTS OVER THE OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY AIR FILTERING DOWN FROM THE NORTH BEFORE SURFACE RIDGING
USHERS VARIABLE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3KM AGL.
LOCALLY, THIS PATTERN WILL FACILITATE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90'S WITH
A FEW BACKYARDS TOUCHING THE MID 90'S. MEANWHILE, EVENING LOWS
WILL ALSO TREND CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS-- IN THE UPPER 60'S
FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS TRENDING TO LOW 70'S TOWARD THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY MAX OUT NEAR OR UNDER 100°F DURING
THE AFTERNOONS, CAUTION IS STILL ENCOURAGED FOR THOSE SPENDING
LENGTHY PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
LOOKING AHEAD AT THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THIS STAGNANT
PATTERN IS A RESULT OF A SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HEREAFTER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BROADER HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN OVERHEAD PRIOR TO A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THE FORECAST,
BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HESITANT TO SHOW ANY SIGNS OF
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SEASONABLE WARM
AND DRY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS HAVE TRENDED VARIABLE
EASTERLIES WITH FEW TO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF. PERIODS OF ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER
OUTER 20 TO 60 NM WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOWER SLP
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS TO BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION STRENGTHENS FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPS TO DRIVE INTO THE MID 90'S EACH DAY. SURFACE MIXING IS
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME RH MINIMUMS IN THE 30 TO 45
PERCENT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 70 95 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 73 93 73 91 / 0 0 0 10
LFT 72 94 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 72 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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