204
FXUS64 KLCH 132302
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
602 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90'S AGAIN TODAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS OPPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION.
- UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US MAY OFFER ENOUGH
WEAKNESS OVERHEAD TO ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AROUND A 5 TO 9 PERCENT CHANCE.)
OTHERWISE, HOT AND DRY.
- LOWER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CAPPED
IN THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY. CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY FOR
THOSE OUTDOORS WORKING, AT SPORTING PRACTICES, OR OTHERWISE
BEING ACTIVE OUTDOORS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
PATTERN REMAINS DRY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO ORGANIZED
WEATHER TO PRODUCE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SIGHT. A MODEST SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESTS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION BRINGING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES PROGGED
TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90'S TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE USUAL
MIX OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN PUFFY CUMULUS CLOUDS SCATTERED IN THE
AFTERNOONS. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
SOME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE, HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN VERY SLIM AND
ISOLATED AT BEST TO PUT IN THE FORECAST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE OCCURS WITH THE PATTERN APART FROM A SLIGHT
RELAXATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT. LOCALLY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL FALL
TOWARD 35-45% RANGE. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO CARRY INTO THE
LONG RANGE, CONDITIONS WILL START TO BECOME ABNORMALLY DRY MEANING
THAT CERTAIN VEGETATION MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO EASY BURNING.
CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH THE ACCUMULATION OF DRY WEATHER DAYS
WHILE BURNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES VERY STAGNANT ACROSS THE
TX / LA GULF COAST ALLOWING MASS CONVERGENCE ALOFT TO BUILD THE
RIDGE AND LIKELY ADJUST TEMPERATURES A TOWARD MID 90'S ACROSS A
WIDER FOOTPRINT. TAKING A LOOK AT THE GLOBAL PATTERN OF THE POLAR
JET, THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS UNDER A RIDGE PORTION OF A
ROSSBY WAVE. CONSISTING OF USUALLY 4 OR 5 WAVES, THESE LONGWAVE
FEATURES BORDER COOLER POLAR AIR ABUT SUBTROPICAL AIR AND
MOISTURE THAT ROTATE SLOWLY IN A COUNTERCLOCKWISE FASHION AROUND
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. WHEN A CREST / RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE HIGH
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA, WEATHER ACROSS THE CONUS IS OFTEN
TEMPERED. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR SOUTHERN STATES AS THE
MORE ACTIVE REGION OF THE JET STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. IN THIS
CASE, SYNOPTIC FEATURES JUST DON'T HAVE THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO
BRING ORGANIZED WEATHER FEATURES TOWARD SETX / SWLA.
NERDY WEATHER THOUGHTS ASIDE, WE'LL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90'S
WHILE LOWS REMAIN ABOUT ON PAR WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS--RANGING
FROM UPPER 60'S TO LOW 70'S TRENDING TOWARD THE COAST. FEW
BACKYARDS MAY TREND TOWARD UPPER 90'S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS SOUTH
CENTRAL LA AS WE CLOSE OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES GAIN SOME MORE ACCELERATION, NO APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL IS IN SIGHT DURING THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED TO PREVAIL FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.
PERIODS OF ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER OUTER
20 TO 60 NM WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
WAVES.
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY, VARIABLE WINDS TO BE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MID WEEK, HOWEVER, TODAY INTO
SUNDAY, A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE.
DRY AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP MOST RAIN CHANCES TO A MINIMUM, BUT THIS
WEAKNESS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW VERY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY- THOUGH CHANCES STILL
FALL UNDER 10%. VERY LOW RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ANY
CELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP. MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED THRU THE
MID WEEK. SURFACE MIXING IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
RH MINIMUMS IN THE 25 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 94 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 74 91 72 91 / 0 10 0 0
LFT 72 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 73 91 72 91 / 0 20 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05
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