158
FXUS64 KLCH 141131
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.
- LOWER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES CAPPED
IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES
SUPPRESSED AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER, JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A VERY
SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM, BUT MAINLY IN SW LA AND SE TX. COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE 10 TO 20% AT BEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, HOWEVER A MODEST INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DECREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO AS WELL WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. NO PUSH OF
COOLER AIR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM OR EVEN JUST
AFTER. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING, WITH VIS
RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 SM AT THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITIES COULD
WORSEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, HOWEVER THEY WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WE CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SE WINDS AND VERY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS AT THE MOMENT DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING ALONG WITH PERCENTAGES BEING
BELOW 20. CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY FOG TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER, AND THAT HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
PERIOD. A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A WAVE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS TO BE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER OR NEAR THE REGION INTO THE MID WEEK, HOWEVER, TODAY A BRIEF
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE WITH A 10 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AS A RESULT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 93 69 93 68 / 10 0 0 0
LCH 92 73 91 72 / 20 0 0 0
LFT 91 71 91 71 / 10 0 0 0
BPT 91 73 91 72 / 20 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...87
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