730
FXUS64 KLCH 161118
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
618 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOISTURE ALOFT ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING, WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY 2 TO 3F.
- MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF
THE WEEK AND MORE SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN US
TONIGHT, PROVIDING CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALOFT, A LARGE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
THE CAROLINAS, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LOW EXTENDING TOWARDS
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE MID-WEEK, BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO TRANSITION A BIT THURS
INTO THE WEEKEND.
TODAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE
BROADENING OUT A BIT. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL PROVIDE SOME
SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION, WITH NBM PAINTING ~20 POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWATS LOOK TO BE ABOUT
OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TOMORROW (~1.6-1.8"), SO WE
DEFINITELY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE MIX.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL EAST COAST LOW BROADENS OUT FURTHER,
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY LATE WED
BEFORE DISSIPATING INTO MORE OF A LARGE SCALE WEAKNESS THROUGHOUT
THURS. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST, ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO TRANSITION BACK TO A WELL
ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW AND
STEADY RETURN OF MOISTURE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW TO NEAR ZERO WED AND THURS, THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO (COMPARED
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAY), WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES RATHER
UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE ARK-LA-
TEX WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY HAVING A
COUPLE OF DAYS TO GET BACK TO 'NORMAL' THESE PASSING DISTURBANCES
SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUES INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
FRI-SUN. WHILE RAIN CHANCES DO LOOK BEST FURTHER TO OUR NORTH
(ESPECIALLY ON FRI), I DEFINITELY WOULD EXPECT A GOOD SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY ESPECIALLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING
HOURS.
BY SUNDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES FURTHER UNSETTLED AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA TO THE GULF COAST MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN
CHANCES TO RAMP UP FURTHER SUN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK,
WHILE ALSO BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO THANKS TO
MORE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH VERY FEW AREAS
OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG. WE COULD SEE A BIT MORE OF THIS DEVELOP
BEFORE SUNRISE, HOWEVER WHATEVER DOES FORM WILL BE QUICK TO BURN
OFF AFTERWARDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE DAY, HOWEVER MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES CAN BE
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TO
PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
LIGHT MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED, WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE 45 TO 55 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW END RAIN CHANCES ALSO RETURN
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY THANKS TO A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND DAYTIME
HEATING. RAIN CHANCES AND MOISTURE BEGIN TO INCREASE FURTHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 93 68 93 68 / 20 20 20 10
LCH 92 72 90 72 / 20 10 30 10
LFT 91 71 90 70 / 20 20 30 0
BPT 92 71 91 72 / 20 20 20 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...87
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