103
FXUS64 KLCH 161758
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1258 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MOIST AIRMASS COMING OFF THE GULF WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LOW
ECLIPSING THE SOUTHEAST US TO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY 2 TO 3F.
- MOISTURE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE LATE WEEKEND, HOWEVER,
RAIN CHANCES LIKELY DON'T RETURN UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WORK
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONTAL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THEIR INFLUENCE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS NORTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, DUE TO MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING ALOFT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FURTHER WEAKNESS SPREADS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
LIFTING OUT AND TROF LEFT BEHIND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A MORE
SCATTERED COVERING, CHANCES WILL STILL BE RATHER LIMITED, THOUGH.
THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEAKNESS WILL ALSO
ASSIST WITH KEEPING HIGHS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S CAN BE ANTICIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES IN THE MID
90S.
11
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
THE LONGTERM PATTERN CONTINUES TO CONFOUND. ONE ROUND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE'S CONFIDENCE AND THE NEXT ROUND, GUIDANCE
DIVERGES. THIS LIMITS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
IT APPEARS A SERIES OF WEAK TROFS WILL ROLL THROUGH THE UPPER
PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS SURFACE HIGH MEANDERS AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
US AND UPPER LONGWAVE TROF SITS OVER THE NORTH GULF. THIS PATTERN
IS NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR ONE PARTICULAR FORECAST OR ANOTHER. IN THE
DEAD OF SUMMER WHEN TROPICAL MOISTURE ABOUNDS, THIS WOULD BE A
TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM / SEABREEZE PATTERN. BUT CONSIDERING
THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD, IT'S LIKELY
POPS WILL BE TAMPED DOWN TO LESS THAN 25 PERCENT EACH DAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR DOWN
IN THE REGION, BUT THE UNCERTAIN PATTERN GIVES ME PAUSE THAT A
COOL DOWN IS ON THE WAY. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING NEARBY,
BEST EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO PREVAIL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH LOWER 90S TO AROUND 89F EACH DAY.
11
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE REGION AND WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ALOFT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF OUTER WATERS ENHANCING TO 2 TO 3 FT AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES ON PASSING WAVES. RAIN CHANCES ALSO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ALOFT WITHIN A SEMI MOIST
AIRMASS. DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY DOWN
THE COLUMN ON FRIDAY DROPPING DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES TO AROUND
35 TO 40 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 93 69 93 68 / 20 10 20 10
LCH 92 72 90 71 / 20 10 30 10
LFT 91 71 90 69 / 30 10 30 0
BPT 92 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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