379
FXUS64 KLCH 030521
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EAST WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS. COMBINED SEAS
WILL BE 7 FEET IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
- MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO RAMP UP
A BIT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
THIS WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST, AROUND 10 MPH, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ON THE EAST COAST AND
KEEPS OUR WINDS ELEVATED. THIS EASTERLY WIND WILL SLOWLY REPLACE
OUR DRY AIR WITH A WARMER AND MOISTER AIRMASS. HOWEVER, FOR THE
WEEKEND, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER,
WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WON’T
BRING MUCH RELIEF EITHER, WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR
THE COAST AND DROPPING TO THE MID-60S FARTHER INLAND. WHILE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL START OFF DRY, DEW POINTS HERE ON THE GROUND ARE
GOING TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
ALONG THE COAST, THERE IS A FLOODING CONCERN AS NEAP TIDES ALONG
WITH STRONG EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT IF WINDS ARE MORE NORTHEASTERLY, THEN A COASTAL
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
ON SUNDAY, THE LOW ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE. AS THE
SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE, IT WILL PULL MORE GULF MOISTURE INLAND. EVEN
WITH PWATS GOING INTO THE 75TH PERCENTILE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL STILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER THE LOW DISSIPATES, A STRONG
RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EVEN WITH
THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN, HIGH PWATS ALONG WITH SUMMER-
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO POPUP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STUBBORNLY HIGH (PARDON THE PUN), WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON PROB30 IS IN THE FORECAST FOR LCH
AND BPT. THE PROB30 COULD BE EXPANDED TO ARA/LFT IF MODELS START
TO LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL OF OUR COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS, AND WAVES WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE TWO BUOYS IN OUR COASTAL AREA ARE BOTH OFFLINE
AT THE MOMENT, BUT LOOKING AT THE BUOYS TO OUR EAST, THE SWELL IS
ALREADY BUILDING WITH 7-FOOT SEAS SOUTH OF MOBILE AND 4-FOOT SEAS
SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. MOST OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO MISS OUR AREA, BUT IT WILL STILL BE IMPORTANT TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SHORE. NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER.
IN THE SOUTHERN GULF, THE NHC HAS GIVEN A 10% CHANCE FOR A
TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
A BIT OF A MIXED FORECAST FOR FIRE WEATHER, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE MID-30S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA. IN
ADDITION, DRY CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DROUGHT
ACROSS ACADIANA AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. FOR THE
GOOD NEWS, MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM RH VALUES NEAR 90
PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE EAST,
BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE LOW LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 63 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 87 67 89 68 / 10 0 10 10
LFT 87 67 87 69 / 20 0 10 10
BPT 88 68 88 69 / 10 10 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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