803
FXUS64 KLCH 040444
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. EAST
WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 7
FEET IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGING CENTERED ON
THE EAST COAST EXTENDS OVERHEAD. IN THE GULF, LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST, INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
LEADING TO WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE
STEADY EAST WIND WILL BRING DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION, KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO INLAND, WHILE THE DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20% ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. MOISTURE
WILL START TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK LOW MOVES ONSHORE TO OUR
EAST. MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR EAST,
BUT WE WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH PWATS RISING ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE, WITH VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN ACADIANA, WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE WEST.
ALONG THE COAST, THE ELEVATED EAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IN SOUTH ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES, AS WELL
AS IN CAMERON AND SOUTH CALCASIEU PARISH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS WATER LEVELS 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE MHHW LEVELS, WITH WATER
LEVELS APPROACHING 2 FEET AT TEXAS POINT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS NEAR
90 EACH AFTERNOON.LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT A SUMMERTIME PATTERN,
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOW IN OCTOBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE TYPICAL, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ALMOST 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO
BUILD OVERHEAD, WITH RIDGING LIMITING RAIN TO NEAR THE COAST.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS, WHILE A
STEADY EAST-NORTHEAST WIND WILL DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE E-NE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS, WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET,
WITH A 6 TO 8-SECOND PERIOD. LATE SUNDAY, THE LOW WILL MOVE
ONSHORE, AND BY MONDAY, WINDS WILL WEAKEN, DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ONCE THE WINDS WEAKEN, WAVES WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW 4
FEET BY MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION. KBDI VALUES REMAIN HIGH, WITH MOST OF
THE REGION ABOVE 500. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HAVE MINRH VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50%, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 89 65 86 / 0 0 0 20
LCH 67 88 68 86 / 0 10 10 40
LFT 68 86 70 84 / 0 20 10 60
BPT 68 88 69 86 / 0 10 10 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ073-074-241.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435-
436-450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14
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