982
FXUS64 KLCH 041804
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
104 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN OLD STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM, A WEAK SURFACE LOW, AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BRING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN BY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NOTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ALONG AN
OLD STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF AND THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS NON-TROPICAL AND HAS A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING ACCORDING TO NHC, AS STRONG
WIND SHEAR WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE LOW
REMAINS MORE LIKE A SURFACE WAVE AS IT MOVES TO THE TEXAS COAST ON
MONDAY.
ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND A HIGH OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE RETROGRADING WITH THE SURFACE LOW, AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH A COASTAL TROUGH/OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER LOWER ACADIANA, AND THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WHICH WILL BE MUCH NEEDED
WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
WITH THE ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS AND EKMAN SPIRAL AFFECTS, TIDES
WILL RUN ABOUT A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF ABOVE NORMAL THAT WILL
BRING WATER PILING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO SUNDAY THAT MAY BRING ABOUT SOME
NUISANCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
RUA
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL BE HANGING AROUND FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA REDUCING RAIN CHANCES. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY THAT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO FOR LESS HUMID DAYS AND
COOLER NIGHTS.
RUA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH ELEVATED WINDS FROM THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP NEAR THE KLCH/KLFT/KARA TERMINALS AFTER 04/21Z.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND AFTER
05/01Z. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO LIGHT FROM THE EAST UNDER 10
KNOTS AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM BY MID MORNING SUNDAY NEAR THE COAST AND
AFFECT THE KLCH/KARA TERMINALS BY 05/14Z. AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
A WEAK, NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TO BRING ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS
AND SEAS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE WITH MIN AFTERNOON VALUES ABOVE 60 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 65 86 68 88 / 0 40 20 40
LCH 69 86 72 88 / 10 50 50 50
LFT 71 83 72 87 / 10 70 30 50
BPT 70 86 72 87 / 20 30 40 50
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ073-074-241.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ615-616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ435-436-450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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