348
FXUS64 KLCH 050625
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
125 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM COASTAL CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING INLAND AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
ONSHORE.
- EXPECT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THRU THE MORNING HOURS AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL SFC WAVE CONTINUES
TO LINGER IN NEARSHORE WATERS AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT TODAY AND MONDAY
TO BE RATHER SLOPPY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD EXPANDS
AND PICKS THIS BOUNDARY UP IN ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD HOLD TO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY START COMING INLAND IN
CENTRAL LA (EXPANDING OUT FROM THERE) DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN THE
REGION. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY INVADE THE SKIES,
ERODING THAT DRY AIR LAYER FROM ALOFT, DOWNWARD, AND FROM COASTAL
AREAS, NORTHWARD.
CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPS IN LOWER
ACADIANA. HIGHS HERE CAP IN THE MID 80S WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST
(DAYTIME WARMING BEFORE CLOUD COVER CAN MOVE IN) SEEING THE SAME
UPPER 80S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSISTENTLY MIGRATE SOUTH
AND WEST FROM THE EAST US OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TO SEND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE REGION MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE WASHED WELL NORTH BY TUESDAY.
ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE RIDGING
IN FROM THE EAST, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A FETCH OFF THE GULF.
THIS COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THE RUN OF ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 TO START THE
WORK WEEK.
DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE WAVE AND HIGH WILL BRING ABOUT BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS TODAY
AND MONDAY. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
ANOTHER LONG RUN OF DRY WEATHER WILL THEN SET UP FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD. COOL, DRY AIR MOVES DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL US AND NORTHERN
SOUTHEAST STATES IN MASS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COMBINATION
OF THIS DRY AIR AND INCREASING RIDGING WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WHILE THIS WILL BE A COLD FRONT, THE DRY
AIR FILTERS DOWN INTO OUR AREA. WE WON'T SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
ELEVATED WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS A BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND FROM NRN GULF WATERS.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND EAST TO WEST,
WITH A PROGRESSIVE DROPPING OF CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS
MOIST AIRMASS MOVES ONSHORE, RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE REGION AT LFT, ARA FIRST THIS MORNING,
BEFORE MOVING NEAR LCH AND BPT IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON, AND FINALLY INLAND TO AEX IN THE AFTERNOON. ON AND OFF
PERIODS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED, WITH ONLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM THE EAST AND WILL BE BREEZY TO GUSTY AT
TIMES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESSIVELY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST, SO EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
11
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE EAST, INCREASING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT SUSTAINED EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS 4 TO 7 FEET TODAY.
INCREASING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO LIFT NORTH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WINDS DIMINISH. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AS A
BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND OFF GULF WATERS. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE CONTAINED TO COASTAL ACADIANA, BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND
THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BEYOND
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 68 88 68 / 30 30 50 20
LCH 87 71 88 73 / 30 30 40 20
LFT 84 72 87 72 / 60 40 50 10
BPT 87 72 88 73 / 20 20 40 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ073-
074-241.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ615-
616.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ435-436-
450-452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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