762
FXUS64 KLCH 060007
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND BOUNDARY MOVE INLAND.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL REDUCE
RAIN CHANCES WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
AND ABOVE NORMAL
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. UNDER THIS IS A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS JUST OFF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THE SURFACE
LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME TROPICAL WITH UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND
IT REMAINING ATTACHED TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND INLAND ALONG
THE TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
HELP BRING AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, SO WIDESPREAD HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
BY TUESDAY, THE BROAD WEAKNESS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WASH OUT, THAT WILL HELP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE AND ABOVE
CLIMO NORMS.
RUA
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM ALONG THE EASTERN US.
THE RESULT WILL BE A NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
THERE MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MODEST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE VERY WARM SIDE AND ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.
RUA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CIGS RANGING FROM 2000 FT TO 3500 FEET ARE
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
NORTH GULF WATERS GAINING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH TROF OVERHEAD
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT CIGS TO
CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT
SMATTERING OF GROUND FOG (5 TO 6SM) AS MOISTURE CONTINUES SURGING
IN OVERNIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
IMPACTING MUCH OF LOUISIANA.
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE NORTHWARD MARCH OF THE BOUNDARY
MONDAY DAYTIME. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AT EAST TERMINALS SINCE THE TROF SHOULD COME ONSHORE
ALONG THE TX/LA LINE. NOT ANTICIPATING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS.
11/CALHOUN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MEDIUM SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF LESSENS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE GULF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INLAND BY MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON MONDAY WILL
BE ELEVATED WITH MIN AFTERNOON VALUES ABOVE 60 PERCENT. HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 69 87 69 90 / 40 50 20 20
LCH 71 88 72 89 / 30 40 20 30
LFT 72 86 72 89 / 50 50 10 30
BPT 71 88 72 90 / 20 20 20 30
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11
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