036
FXUS64 KLCH 060604
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
104 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND BOUNDARY MOVE INLAND. HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-49.
- THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES
LEFT IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
BRINGING INCREASINGLY DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN BY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE AND ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
BROAD TROF ARE SITUATED JUST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COASTLINE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROFFING
FEATURE ARE ONGOING FROM NEAR MORGAN CITY NORTH TO BATON ROUGE AND
EAST TOWARDS NEW ORLEANS ALONG A CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY INDUCED BY
ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS HITTING LAND FRICTION. THIS "PILING UP" OF
WINDS IS ACTING TO BUILD UP SHOWERS AND SO A CORRIDOR OF HEAVY
RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. PWATS EAST OF LFT TO AEX ARE BEING ANALYZED AT 2.00"+,
WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS DAY,
CLIMATOLOGICALLY. THIS MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS GETTING
DUNKED ON, RAIN WISE, BUT MOST RAIN SHOULD FALL RIGHT OVERTOP AND
EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.
THE TROF WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF 49
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT LARGELY EXPECT RAIN TO STAY ALONG
AND EAST OF 49. AS WE MOVE TOWARDS AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LAFAYETTE AND ALEXANDRIA,
THIS IS NOT A BIG LIGHTNING PRODUCING SETUP.
THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND FRONT WASHES OUT BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY BRINGING SOME DRY BUT NOT COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL STAUNCH ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
COOL, DRY AIR MOVES DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL US AND NORTHERN
SOUTHEAST STATES IN MASS WEDNESDAY. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIVING THIS AIRMASS QUICKLY MOVES EAST BY END OF DAY WEDNESDAY,
THUS FLOW CUTS OFF BY THURSDAY AND THE COOLER AIR STALLS JUST
NORTH OF THE COASTLINE. WHILE DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION,
FORCED ON SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, DON'T
ANTICIPATE A BIG COOLDOWN OR NOTABLE RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONGTERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CIGS RANGING FROM 2000 FT TO 3500 FEET ARE
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE BOUNDARY IN
NORTH GULF WATERS GAINING SOME ORGANIZATION WITH TROF OVERHEAD
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT SMATTERING OF
GROUND FOG (3 TO 4SM) AS MOISTURE CONTINUES SURGING IN OVERNIGHT.
MOST RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE CONTAINED TO THE I49 CORRIDOR AND EAST
TODAY, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN AREA TAFS.
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST TO EAST BEFORE
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE NORTHWARD MARCH OF THE BOUNDARY
MONDAY DAYTIME. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AT EAST TERMINALS SINCE THE TROF SHOULD COME ONSHORE
ALONG THE TX/LA LINE. NOT ANTICIPATING ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND AND
WINDS DIMINISH. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE COMING DAYS. RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WINDS AND SEAS DO APPEAR TO
PICKUP ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN A PSEUDO COLD FRONT DOWN
INTO COASTAL WATERS.
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AT
SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING RIGHT NEAR THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA STATE LINE. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, BUT BASED ON THE
LOCATION OF THE TROF, RAINFALL SHOULD LARGELY BE CONTAINED TO THE
I-49 CORRIDOR AND EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST, WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAVING THE LOWEST
CHANCES.
THE TROF MOVES NORTH TODAY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES BACK IN.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD HOVER IN THE 45 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. A REINFORCING ROUND OF DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 68 90 68 / 40 10 20 10
LCH 88 72 90 72 / 20 10 20 10
LFT 87 72 89 71 / 40 0 20 10
BPT 89 73 90 71 / 10 10 20 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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