304
FXUS64 KLCH 061734
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- NEARBY SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN PLACE TODAY
MAINLY ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA, WITH DRY BUT CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
BRINGING INCREASINGLY DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN BY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
MONDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL LA, WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-49, EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA HOWEVER, COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY CROP UP AROUND ST. LANDRY/AVOYELLES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
TOMORROW, THE NEARBY SURFACE LOW MEANDERS NORTH BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING, WHILE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALOFT, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EAST
COAST SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND AMPLIFIES A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW THROUGH WED. AS RIDGING SETS UP OVERHEAD RAIN
CHANCES FALL TO NEAR ZERO TOMORROW THROUGH WED. LOWER RAIN CHANCES
AND LESS CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS (AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
FORTUNATELY, A REPRIEVE FROM THE EARLY FALL HEAT/HUMIDITY LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AS WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM, WITH A FEW DAYS OF SEASONAL
WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE WED/EARLY
THURS, AND WHILE IT MAY INITIALLY GET HUNG UP A BIT IT WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. WHILE THIS FRONT WON'T BRING ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AIR, IT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, WHICH IS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND A NICE CHANGE FROM LOWER 90S HIGHS/LOWER 70S LOWS WE'VE BEEN
EXPERIENCING. IN ADDITION, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. OTHERWISE, SHOULD BE
A RATHER UNEVENTFUL END TO THE WEEK, WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE ACADIANA TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER, THESE SHOULD CAUSE MINIMAL ISSUES IF ANY. TONIGHT, CIGS
WILL LIFT INITIALLY WHILE WINDS WILL GO CALM. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CIGS
BEGIN TO LOWER AND FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUES, LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS. GUIDANCE KEEPS VIS AROUND MVFR AT BPT, WITH THE
REMAINING TERMINALS LIKELY FALLING TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER, FOG BURNS
OFF AND CEILINGS LIFT AGAIN, WITH ALL SITES RETURNING TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY INTO
TOMORROW, WITH WINDS THEN TURNING MORE NE BY EARLY WED. OFFSHORE
FLOW THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND REINFORCES THIS FLOW. AS THIS
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD WILL
TIGHTEN AND WINDS/SEAS WILL PICK UP IN RESPONSE. EXPECTED SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED CONDITIONS BY LATE WED INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND, WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY AS EARLY AS THURSDAY SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
LIGHT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA
TODAY, WITH DRY (RAIN FREE) CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WHILE LITTLE
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY, A MOIST AIRMASS LINGERS WITH MIN RH
VALUES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH THURS WITH MIN
RH VALUES CONTINUING TO ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY, A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON THURS BRINGING A SHOT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
THAT WILL RH VALUES DOWN SLIGHTLY FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES ALSO REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 91 68 85 / 10 10 10 10
LCH 73 90 72 90 / 0 10 10 10
LFT 72 89 71 89 / 10 20 0 10
BPT 72 90 72 90 / 0 10 10 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17
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