146
FXUS64 KLCH 072338
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS ON THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY FORM DEVELOPING.
- A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
AND COOLER NIGHT TIME LOWS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NEAR
MEMPHIS INTO SE TX, WHILE A COLD FRONT IS JUST BEHIND IT DRAPED
ACROSS MO/OK AND INTO NORTH TX. ALOFT, BROAD FLAT RIDGING IS
SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS
NOTED OVERHEAD IN WV IMAGERY. AFTER A VERY FOGGY START TO THE
MORNING SKIES HAVE FINALLY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WHILE TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MID/LATE WEEK, KEEPING DRY AIR ALOFT AND A
CAP ON CONVECTION OVERHEAD. AT THE SAME TIME, MOISTURE REMAINS
ELEVATED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURS FINALLY USHERS IN SOME DRIER AIR
LATER IN THE WEEK. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER OF THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOW 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THURS WILL BRING A TRANSITION PERIOD, AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S HOWEVER, THE DRIER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT'LL HANG BACK A
BIT AND WON'T FULLY ARRIVE UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON/NIGHT, WITH PWATS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THANKS TO RIDGING ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING OUR MOST PLEASANT STRETCH OF
WEATHER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD, AS DRY AIR FULLY FILTERS DOWN
INTO THE CWA THURS NIGHT ALLOWING PWATS TO FALL BELOW 1" FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. DEWPOINTS PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR
SUNRISE FRI, LEVELING OFF IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S RANGE FRI
THROUGH SUN. TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SERN US AND REINFORCES A DRY NWRLY
FLOW OVERHEAD. WHILE HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUN
THROUGH TUES (PARTICULARLY FOR THOSE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10) MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND OVERALL DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. THIS UPTICK IN
MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY NOTICEABLE IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ANY TERMINALS BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP BEFORE MORNING. AT THE MOMENT THE
LOWER ACADIANA AREA IS WHERE THE PROBS SHOW ANY FOG FORMATION, AND
THAT IS NOT AS BULLISH AS LAST NIGHT, WITH BELOW 1 MILE IN THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08/09Z-13Z AT KLFT/KARA.
ON WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. TOMORROW, WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO MODEST FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS WILL INCREASE
BY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY
UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN A DRIER
AIRMASS THURS NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60
PERCENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FALLING INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S
THEREAFTER. DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD, RIDGING ALOFT
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 68 88 63 83 / 10 10 0 0
LCH 71 90 70 87 / 10 10 0 0
LFT 71 90 69 87 / 0 10 0 0
BPT 71 90 70 88 / 10 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...07
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