856
FXUS64 KLCH 080520
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
FORM DEVELOPING.
- A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY BRINGING A DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH THE AIR MASS LINGERING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER
NIGHT TIME LOWS.
- WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS, DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY, THERE WILL BE
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS AND MARSH FIRES ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL JUST PROVIDE A
WIND SHIFT WITH A MORE PREDOMINATE NORTHEAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
BY THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
MASS WILL FILTER IN LOWERING HUMIDITY VALUES. ALSO, A BIT OF A
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL ALSO BE NOTED AS A RATHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST.
IN THE DRY AIR MASS WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING, AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE WARM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS,
ALTHOUGH LESS HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT MORE TOLERABLE. WITH CLEAR SKIES
AT NIGHT, AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE A GOOD DROP WITH RATHER COOL
AND COMFORTABLE READINGS.
RUA
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND LOWER PRESSURE WILL
BE NOTED EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN
BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING BACK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
THAT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER NIGHTTIME LOWS AND MORE OF THE SAME ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS, ALBEIT WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
FORMING.
RUA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
NORTHERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE LOOK TO STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
HELP PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP FOG IN CHECK WHEN COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. AT THE MOMENT THE LOWER ACADIANA AREA IS WHERE THE
PROBS SHOW ANY FOG FORMATION, AND THAT ALSO IS NOT AS BULLISH AS
LAST NIGHT, WITH BELOW 1 MILE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08/09Z- 13Z AT
KARA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT KAEX/KLFT.
ON WEDNESDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
RUA
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS WILL INCREASE BY
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DECREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 50
TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ON THURSDAY THAT
WILL INCREASE THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND BRING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 40 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP
KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS, AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 63 85 56 / 10 0 0 0
LCH 90 71 87 63 / 10 10 0 0
LFT 90 70 88 63 / 10 10 0 0
BPT 90 71 88 64 / 10 10 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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