882
FXUS64 KLCH 090523
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1223 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
- WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS, DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY, THERE WILL BE
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS AND MARSH FIRES THURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE LA AND UPPER TX
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CURRENTLY DOMINATES MOST OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY
THIS PAST EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THROUGH THE THIS AFTERNOON, BEHIND THE BOUNDARY A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER IN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER LA AND
EASTERN TX, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE
AND ABOVE CLIMO AVERAGES. SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT ONLY TO AT, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO AVERAGES. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TO START THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNDAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST BY MID
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20KTS DURING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WINDS WILL INCREASE. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THURS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SCA MAY
BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THAT WILL ALLOW
NE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY, BRINGING A SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 30 TO 50 PERCENT TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
FRI LIKELY BEING THE DRIEST OF THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS, AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COMING DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 86 56 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 89 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 89 62 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 90 64 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
452-455-470-472-475.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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