399
FXUS64 KLCH 171131
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY FILTER GULF MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MORE NOTABLE CHANCES DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS / LOWS ON SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING WARMER
INTO FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF TODAY WHILE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY ERODES
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH INCREASES THE RH PROFILE OF THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA,
INCREASING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS SMALL AS SOME
INVERSION CAPPING CAN BE EXPECTED WHILE THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
MOISTENS AND GAINS INSTABILITY. FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER SETX, BUT ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS ISN'T FORECAST TO AMOUNT
TO MUCH. HIGHS WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 80'S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOUCHING 90°F BRIEFLY. NATURALLY
EVENING LOWS WILL BE LOFTED ABOVE THEIR NORMS-TO THE MID / UPPER
60'S.
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO ORGANIZING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES.
SE WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. BLENDED GUIDANCE ALONG THE EURO HAS BEEN LITTLE MORE
CONSISTENT BRINGING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH HAS BEEN A LIMITING FACTOR IN DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS / STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE,
SOME OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE
EURO ALONG WITH SOME LATE RANGE CAPTURES FROM THE HI-RES MODELS.
AS THE FRONT DESCENDS TOWARD THE COAST FROM NORTH TEXAS, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WORTH NOTING, THE SPC
ILLUSTRATES THE INSTABILITY PROFILE WELL SATURDAY- NOTING AN
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DOWN TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR. MAIN
CONCERN HERE WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS ENCOURAGED FOR THOSE ATTENDING OUTDOOR EVENTS THIS
DAY.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER, WE WILL RESUME A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 80'S. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE
EVENING LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. UNDER CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50'S. A FEW BACKYARDS ACROSS
CENLA MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE UPPER 40'S.
KOWALSKI / 30
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES MONDAY WITH MILD HIGHS IN THE LOW 80'S. THIS
COOL SNAP, IF YOU WILL, WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
MONDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEW WORK WEEK AHEAD.
GUIDANCE DOES YIELD LOW END CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
SPORADICALLY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. THAT SAID, HIGH PRESSURE IS
LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL LIKELY CAP ANY
PRECIPITATION TO A MINIMUM.
KOWALSKI / 30
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
RESULTING IN SHORT, BUT SOMETIMES DRAMATIC CHANGES IN VISIBILITY
AT AREA TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS FOG TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 14Z. FOLLOWING THE FOG DISSIPATION,
VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 08Z SATURDAY MORNING.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
TONIGHT INTO FRI, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15-18 KTS. NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WAVES WILL RANGE 1 - 3
FT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ON LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE
PLACE BEFORE RESUMING ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE MINIMUM RH TODAY, HOWEVER,
AFTERNOON RH MAY STILL FALL BELOW 50% ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA.
CURRENTLY, MULTIPLE PARISHES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE ACROSS ACADIANA
ALONG WITH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE FURTHER SATURDAY UNDER SOUTH WINDS WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 90 62 89 64 / 0 0 50 70
LCH 87 69 87 70 / 0 0 60 50
LFT 87 68 87 69 / 0 0 50 50
BPT 87 71 87 69 / 10 0 60 40
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...66
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