942
FXUS64 KLCH 172331
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY FILTER GULF MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MORE NOTABLE CHANCES DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS / LOWS ON SUNDAY, THEN TRENDING WARMER
INTO FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE
PAST WEEK HAS FINALLY SHIFTED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS PUSHED
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE'S
GRIP AND SLACKENED A BIT TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SE TX.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SE TX WILL CONTINUE TO NEAR SUNSET.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FARTHER INTO SATURDAY AS AND UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA, AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT, WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF I-10, IS GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 60MPH.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, CAA WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY TURNING THE FLOW BACK ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TUESDAY THEN FALL AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
OCCURS WILL MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE LOCAL MIDNIGHT HOUR. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH BECOMING LIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
AFTER SUNRISE. VCSH AND VCTS BECOME POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
TONIGHT INTO FRI, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 15-18 KTS. NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WAVES WILL RANGE
1 - 3 FT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. BRIEF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE
RESUMING ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
ESTABLISHED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE MINIMUM RH TODAY, HOWEVER,
AFTERNOON RH MAY STILL FALL BELOW 50% ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENLA.
CURRENTLY, MULTIPLE PARISHES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE ACROSS
ACADIANA ALONG WITH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CONDITIONS WILL
START TO IMPROVE FURTHER SATURDAY UNDER SOUTH WINDS WITH CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 89 64 78 / 0 50 80 10
LCH 70 86 70 83 / 0 60 60 10
LFT 67 86 69 83 / 0 50 60 20
BPT 71 87 68 84 / 0 50 40 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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