983
FXUS64 KLCH 181139
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL SLOWLY FILTER GULF MOISTURE INLAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
SCATTERED STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW LEADING TO MILD HIGHS FOLLOWED BY COOL LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK
WEEK AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND REMAIN IN
PLACE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE OVER THE FLORIDA ALLOWING A
DECENT SOUTHERLY FETCH OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST IS DEVELOPING A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP INLAND CLOSE
TOWARD THE NOON HOUR. COVERAGE INCREASES TOWARD THE I-49 AND
BEYOND DURING THE MIDAFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70'S, AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE MLCAPE CLOSE
TO 1800 J/KG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY OVER SETX AND EXTREME SWLA WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. DURING WHICH, A FEW STORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WHERE SPC HAS OUTLINED A MARGINAL RISK ALONG
/ NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING
WINDS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS HIGHLY ENCOURAGED FOR THOSE WHO
ATTEND OUTDOOR EVENTS TODAY TO BRING RAIN GEAR AND HAVE A METHOD
TO CHECK UP ON THE WEATHER OR RECEIVE WARNINGS. THAT BEING SAID,
WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK SITUATION. HOWEVER,
HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES, CURRENTLY AROUND 7.8°C/KM PER
TODAY'S 18TH/00Z SOUNDING, ALONG WITH THE DESTABILIZATION TAKING
PLACE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. THOSE
STRONGER STORMS STILL ARE BEST FAVORED OVER CENLA AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80'S
AREAWIDE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS CLEARED THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, BUT HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
MORNING. HEREAFTER, A SHARP, BUT BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL BE OBSERVED.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DRIVE DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSHORE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70'S TO LOW 80'S. SUNDAY NIGHT, SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AS WINDS BEGIN TO TAMPER DOWN LEADING TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP DOWN IN THE 50'S WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF UPPER 40'S FOR SOME BACKYARDS ACROSS CENLA.
MONDAY MORNING WILL START OFF COOL, BUT QUICKLY WARM TOWARD THE
LOW 80'S BY MID AFTERNOON AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT ON SHORE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY UNDER ESTABLISHED ONSHORE
FLOW. HOWEVER, THIS APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
AHEAD, BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MIGRATES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE VERY LOW, THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING BACK MILD CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY WITH
COOL LOWS IN THE MID 50'S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
BROADENING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP TO THE LOW 80'S FOR
HIGHS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SLIM CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE INTERACTION OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH TROPICAL AIR STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A BRIEF LULL IN
STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF A
SQUALL LINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONT. THIS SQUALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO
AN END FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICKUP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
AROUND 15-18 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WAVES
WILL BUILD 2 - 4 FT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. BRIEF, BUT ENHANCED, OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE RESUMING ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP RH ABOVE 60% THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, SO SOME LOCATIONS
MAY AVOID A WETTING RAINFALL. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY REESTABLISH MONDAY. CURRENTLY, MULTIPLE
PARISHES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE ACROSS ACADIANA ALONG WITH COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 89 63 76 46 / 70 80 0 0
LCH 86 69 82 54 / 70 60 10 0
LFT 85 69 81 51 / 70 70 10 0
BPT 87 68 83 56 / 50 40 10 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...66
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