537
FXUS64 KLCH 191129
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WASHED
INTO EAST LOUISIANA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
- NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE AND STRENGTHEN, MAXING IN
THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WATCH OUT FOR THOSE
HOLIDAY DECORATIONS THAT MAY NOT BE TIED DOWN PROPERLY!
- COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FELT MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FOR INLAND COUNTIES AND PARISHES, LOW TO MID 50S EVERYWHERE
ELSE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A RAGGEDY LINE OF PREFRONTAL STORMS IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
LA AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THE LINE TO CONTINUE SWINGING EAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED, GOADED ALONG BY
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE RISK WITH THE PASSAGE. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE HAS
STRUGGLED TO DESTABILIZE, AND WITH NIGHT TIME COOLING, IT'S BECOME
RATHER STABLE.
LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO EAST LOUISIANA PRIOR TO
SUNRISE, WASHED OUT BY DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE PICKING UP, MAXING OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONG FLOW WILL USHER SOUTHWARD DRY AND MUCH
COOLER AIR, CAPPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR INLAND AREAS, LOWER
80S ALONG THE COASTLINE, UNDER INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES.
AS THE OLD AADAGEGOES, THE COLDEST MORNING AFTER A COLD FRONT IS
THE SECOND MORNING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S FOR FAR INLAND PARISHES WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
FOR AREAS DOWN TO THE COASTLINE.
NORTH WINDS CUT OFF SWIFTLY ON MONDAY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FLITS
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SWIFT RETURN FLOW WITH
GULF MOISTURE FLOODING BACK INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE FLUX IS FURTHER ENHANCED TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LOW END POPS POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA. NORTH
WINDS AND A REINFORCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT INTO THE LONGTERM PERIOD. COOL, DRY AIR
ONLY HANGS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVES EAST AND RETURN FLOW OPENS ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
HIGHS AROUND 80F WEDNESDAY BECOME MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US ON FRIDAY. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN MOISTURE, A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SHOULD INCREASE POPS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. IT
IS VERY FAR IN THE FUTURE AND SO ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS TOO
FAR OUT TO DISCERN AT THIS TIME. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES COME DOWN THE PIPELINE.
11/CALHOUN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
WHERE WINDS HAVE CALMED ACROSS THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW
AS 1/4SM. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY 13Z MIXING OUT ANY REMAINING FOG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP STARTING AT SUNRISE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SEE A QUICK INCREASE IN WINDS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET
EXPECTED IN THE 0 TO 60 NM WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF QUICKLY INTO MONDAY
RESULTING IN A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO GULF WATERS. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY'S PASSAGE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXPECT TO EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND THE MIDWEEK.
RETURN, ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST TO END THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BE
SWEPT INTO EAST LOUISIANA BY SUNRISE ON STRENGTHENING NORTH WINDS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND MAX OUT AT 15 TO 20 MPH, HIGHER GUSTS,
DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH COLDER, DRIER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY AND MOVES EAST MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF AND MOISTURE WILL
FLOOD BACK NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY, 25 TO
35 PERCENT MONDAY AND 50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 77 47 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 83 54 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 82 52 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 84 57 83 68 / 0 0 0 0
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
470-472.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66
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