825
FXUS64 KLCH 191753
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1253 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE WASHED
INTO EAST LOUISIANA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
- NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE AND STRENGTHEN, MAXING IN
THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WATCH OUT FOR THOSE
HOLIDAY DECORATIONS THAT MAY NOT BE TIED DOWN PROPERLY!
- COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FELT MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FOR INLAND COUNTIES AND PARISHES, LOW TO MID 50S EVERYWHERE
ELSE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE PLEASANT, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM TEXAS, PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN BREEZY UNTIL THE HIGH
PRESSURE IS ATOP THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
TONIGHT, LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SWIFTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD, LEADING TO
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURNING BY MONDAY MORNING, AND
THEN SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT, GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND THE RETURNING
MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY, WITH WINDS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING
FROM THE NORTH BY TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW NOT LASTING
LONG AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVECT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS RECOVERY COMES AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE
PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS AND THE SHORT TERM SETUP IS THE
HIGHER PWAT VALUES EXPECTED, THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY LONGER
DURATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL PAST THE END OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. THE MOST NOTABLE FACTOR IS THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TAPERING, FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO, AND SUBSEQUENTLY AWAY FROM, THE AREA TO THE
EAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER FROM ELEVATED POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING.
A HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES
QUICKLY INTO MONDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO GULF WATERS. WINDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY'S PASSAGE.
HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXPECT TO EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND THE
MIDWEEK.
RETURN, ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND
WILL PERSIST TO END THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
ELEVATED WINDS AND DRIER AIR HAVE PRODUCED CONDITIONS THAT ARE
NEAR BUT BELOW FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA. NEVERTHELESS,
PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID INADVERTENTLY CAUSING
WILDFIRES.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD LATE THIS EVENING, THEN OFF
TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AND MOISTURE WILL FLOOD BACK NORTH BY TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 47 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 20
LCH 54 83 66 88 / 0 0 0 20
LFT 52 82 62 86 / 0 0 0 10
BPT 57 83 68 89 / 0 0 0 20
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-
470-472.
SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...87
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