872
FXUS64 KLCH 201138
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
638 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FELT THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S FOR INLAND COUNTIES AND PARISHES, LOW TO MID 50S EVERYWHERE
ELSE.
- RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HUMID AND MILD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
QUIET CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERTOP
THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN TO NEARLY CALM WHICH WILL ALLOW
RADIATIVE PROCESSES TO TAKE OVER. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY COOL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG.
INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE UPPER 40S TO STAR THEIR DAY, WITH THOSE
CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE FALLING TO AROUND THE LOWER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN RETURN FLOW
STARTING IN THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY MORNING, MILD TEMPERATURES AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE BACK IN ACTION. THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
ANTICIPATING A SEVERE EVENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD NOT BE SET UP
IN SUCH A WAY AS TO SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY. SHOULD JUST BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHTER RAIN TOTALS.
COOL AIR MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
MILD AND DRY DAY.
11/CALHOUN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT INTO THE LONGTERM PERIOD. COOL, DRY AIR ONLY
HANGS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT
MOVES EAST AND RETURN FLOW OPENS ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT A WARMING AND
MOISTENING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGHS AROUND 80F
WEDNESDAY BECOME MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
ON FRIDAY. WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN MOISTURE, A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH SHOULD INCREASE POPS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. IT IS VERY
FAR IN THE FUTURE AND SO ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS TOO FAR OUT TO
DISCERN AT THIS TIME. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES COME DOWN THE PIPELINE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL
SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF QUICKLY INTO TODAY
RESULTING IN A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW
WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO GULF WATERS. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY'S PASSAGE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXPECT
TO EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND THE MIDWEEK.
RETURN, ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST TO END THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2025
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF QUICKLY INTO TODAY
RESULTING IN A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW
WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO GULF WATERS. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY'S PASSAGE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXPECT
TO EXERCISE CAUTION AROUND THE MIDWEEK.
RETURN, ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PERSIST TO END THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 82 60 83 50 / 0 0 40 0
LCH 83 68 88 61 / 0 0 40 10
LFT 82 63 87 59 / 0 0 30 0
BPT 85 70 89 63 / 0 0 40 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66
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